Everyone likes to feel like they can time the market and trade bitcoin
I have a news flash for you, it's very hard!
This is coming from someone who has years of experience trading equities professionally for a prop firm as well as personally.
That was hard, this is harder.
Today was a perfect example of why that is...
For the last few weeks we have been seeing pretty strong bullish momentum, with not many corrections in sight.
After weeks of that, many technical indicators were starting to get a little on the overbought side.
RSI for example was over 70, which traditionally is viewed as an overbought indicator.
Combine that with the fact we were approaching horizontal resistance around the $10k level plus it was a major psychological resistance level as well.
Add all that up and you could make a strong argument that bitcoin was likely to pullback at least some at that level.
It did.
But that is where the expectations stopped.
After a one day pullback that saw prices drop from $10,200 down to about $9,700 on the lows, bitcoin rallied right back the next day (today) and is now trading at $10,300.
Already above those recent highs!
My brother text me yesterday about how he was glad he sold at $10k and would be looking to get back in on a retrace down to $9k or so...
Well as of right now, it's not looking like he is going to get that chance.
This is exactly why it is so hard to trade this thing.
Most assets would have continued to drift lower after that drop yesterday, with some small spikes here and there, but lower would be the near term trend.
The odds of a move like we saw yesterday happening and then a move back above the all time highs the very next day were very low from a probability stand point.
Bitcoin is a different beast than anything else I have ever traded, and for that reason I don't actively trade it all that much.
I invest what I am comfortable holding (losing) and then see where it goes.
I may buy some when things get oversold and sell some when things get overheated, but I always keep a core position just because I know how volatile and fickle ol bitcoin can be.
For those of you trading in and out of bitcoin on a daily or weekly basis, good luck to you!
You are going to need it.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
http://www.cryptonairenews.com/bitcoin-trading-101-for-beginners/
-Doc
What makes it behave that way?
There have to be a culprit in all of this !
Is $10k the new bottom ?
It looks beneficial if you hold altcoins where spillover generates positive gains.
Keep on postin’
Posted via Steemleo
The reason it is so hard to trade is likely due to an immature and not that liquid of a market, at least relatively speaking. Another name for it would be manipulation. People can move prices much easier in bitcoin than say the S&P 500. I think the drop yesterday attracted short sellers, and the pop today squeezed em right back out. Rinse and repeat.
Bitcoin behaves like gold blended with a high-tech startup's stock. You never know which of these two characteristics are going to determine the price of the day.
Haha well said! At times it behaves like a risk off store of value and at other times it trades like a high beta tech stock with no regard to resistance levels.
I've been using my BTC in celcius and crypto.com to earn some interest on my holdings and continue to stack sats instead of looking at the value I'm just trying to get more stake. It would be awesome if SBD had a solid beg and could be incorporated with Steem Engine and we could do fee-less trades with a BTC peg
Interesting thoughts... pass them along to @aggroed?
Why I gave up trying to trade it and just became Mr HODL last year.
I do a bit of trading around a core position, but it's pretty minimal. Basically just add some when it gets oversold and unload some when it gets overbought. Mostly just hold on and see if the past patterns keep repeating.