After weeks of terrible price action, the bottom might finally be in.
After reaching a high of just under $20k on December 16th, bitcoin had been making lower lows just about ever since.
This culminated this morning with a washout, extending all the way down into the $5,000's (about $5,900 to be exact), before prices ultimately snapped back.
"Just what I needed!"
This is exactly the kind of price reaction off the lows I have been waiting for.
If you look at the trading history on bitcoin, you will often find that when prices make a bottom, they tend to rebound aggressively.
If prices don't rebound aggressively, that's probably not the bottom yet.
We hadn't really seen that type of price action on either of the previous support zones above.
Prices bounced slightly off $9k, and then mostly just knifed through all the supports all the way down to the levels reached this morning.
The fact that there were no bounces were the main reasons I thought prices had further to fall.
However, taking a quick check on markets, we can see that prices are currently trading at $7,700.
Which is about $1,800 off the lows, or about a 33% bounce.
That is exactly the kind of bounce and price action we have seen in the past when bitcoin puts in a bottom.
For that reason I am expecting prices to trend upwards from here.
Where they ultimately go I am not sure, but I would venture to say that a near term bottom has likely been put in early this morning.
Here's to better times ahead for all those holding through this most recent gut wrenching drop!
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
If the current support at 7000 does not hold, there is quite a lot of space down.
Well it did touch about $5,900 this morning, so I am pretty sure that $7k support already didn't hold ;)
Ok, but it was intraday only.
I have not idea why people that bought bitcoin at 10k or more sell bitcoin at 7k or even less.. I just do not get it... people hold....
I do not think it will go under 6k but in coming weeks it will go back over 10k... but I maybe wrong.
@jrcornel
I agree with you.
Where some see the end others see the opportunity to enter.
I designed a global BTC Signal that I attach below, where I detail its operation and the solid signals it provides.
Also of what is happening in this exact moment and how the bottom was seen, in this signal.
Zoom: http://prntscr.com/ibokgk
How does the signal work?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@thomasawa/btc-usd-update-30-01-2018-btc-world-signal
Thanks for the insight!
The correction was a needed one to pave way for a healthy growth. The December highs of almost $20K were just abnormal. I'm sure by now weak hands have already sold off and we are going to experience normal growths.
The SEC meeting today didn't go so bad either.
Agreed. The meeting wasn't great but it also wasn't bad. That coupled with the fact that risky assets around the world rebounded, also helped bitcoin rebound.
yeah right i think the correction done
Many good reasons that we just saw the bottom:
That said, I have some limit buy orders that still haven't filled just in case that I'm wrong.
You also forgot tax refund season here in the US ;)
Here is an abstract vision on the logarithmic price axis depicting the phrase After reaching $20k on December 16th... and making lower lows
I guess we had a quick journey to $20 000 and the similar quick trip to the dark territory below the $10 000.
I agree that correction on done and here is my Elliott Wave count:
Now it depends, how fast can we break the $8 000 or just can we
I also feel bullish now and hope that $8 000 will be broken ASAP. Some more ideas in my latest post, if interested.
Thanks for your analysis, @jrcornel! Nice to find the informative and relevant content.
Great chart, thanks for sharing! I'd also like to see that $8k number broken significantly.
It's hard to tell, some ppl are predicting $5k. BUT, it's fallen so much the probability is increasing that this is the bottom.
After the Congress Virtual Currency Meeting actually being positive..this could really be bottom.
My thoughts as well. Though I am not sure it was positive, but it definitely wasn't negative. ;)
Let's hope that future will be beneficial for the Cryptocurrency market and prices will move towards uptrend.
Stay Blessed.
I reconciled my portfolio when bitcoin was at $6,800... So far it sems like a good move...check it out..any thoughts?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoaltcoin/my-bear-market-portfolio-portfolio-consolidation-during-bear-market
You will never know when there is an exact bottom! We are getting close though with this bounce that as you started may start an uptrend. It seems now people are overly bearish, that's when you get back in! When people are overly bullish when the price is high, that's when you get out!
ANON FEEL SAME ABOUT BOTTOM IT LL BE BOUNCING AROUND 5k
Test
The fact that it did hit rock bottom gave me quite a scare but I'm quietly anticipating better days ahead. We managed to pass the dip safely with all struggles.
We need to form a positive uptrend here. All the money that flowed out of the market has to come in at some point.
I don't think we are there yet. Bitcoin has had its worst performing week / month in ever I believe, therefore there will certainly be stories with that as the theme, or at the very least "bubble" popping type narratives. I believe there is further to go.
Perhaps the tranistion of crypto royalty to a successor is the eventual outcome, has bitcoin gone as far as it can go?
Interesting times ahead that much is certainly for sure.
Its incredibly difficult to predict the bottom without a working crystal ball.
I would be inclined to say its got further to dip, especially with the goings on in the wider economic scene. There could well be some knock-on effects from the stock slump which feeds panic in the crypto market.
Longer term, the Cryptosphere will pull out of this funk, and should eclipse its previous highs with ease.
Im not so sure Bitcoin will remain top of the pile for too much longer though - its looking a bit dated!
100% agree, way too many variables. The amount of new people who got into the crypto market in the last quarter of the year was staggering, many with the view to easy earnings in a market that only went up, like some throw back to the Klondike days.
January has shown that reality is very far removed from such notions and people are sobering up to this and cashing out.
I've mentioned a few times that education only serves to strengthen the crypto space. It is an industry built on innovation and technology, research will show those that can last the pace versus those that lure investors in like some Venus fly trap.
I suspect the market trades sideways for a bit longer, with a possible dip down into the $4-5k range where miners break even, but regardless of price speculation, it seems clear the price 6-12 months from now will be substantially higher.
I think a lot of people bought which raised the price. I think it went as low as $6,200? Is was a heartbreaking watch
According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.
bitcoin.PNG
Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.
At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.
The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.
The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.
Lack of regulation = Bitcoins lack of regulation has scared all major players in the financial market. The fact that all other players have to abide by a set of rules has created major pressure on regulators either to ban or regulate the crypto market. The pressure on Bitcoin can be seen today with China's attempted ban on all domestic and international websites dealing with crypto; The latest ban of acquiring crypto with creditcards form the USA, Great Britain and others; The endless discussions on regulating the crypto market form Korea, India, Japan, USA, European Union and others.
Good insight and i like the analysis. Lets hope its true and we see an upward trend from today
HODL, baby
lol
I'm to see the bottom of our dive. Bank crack down in bitcoin and other currency has nothing to do. In fact bank makes a biggest fraud in history. They are legally steal money from there customer. And the funny thing they actually own no money. Those money they said they have are depositors asset. A reason why they are eager to crack down currency. Because they already know that one of these day, people don't need them anymore.
You are right!!!
Its been so hard to not hit the sell button when your portfolio bleed 30% in a day but we shall all be rewarded for our resilience soon enough! HODL TIL WE BALL
I've been saying this for awhile but it looks like the market cycle for Bitcoin is coming to completion. Which means that we should be able to start seeing some growth again in the near future.
fingers crossed! I wonder how much of the current stock exchange panic has influenced the bitcoin fall...
I think there was a big influence, especially now that some wall street money is in the space. I think the last few days were days when ever risky asset got sold. Bitcoin got caught in the crossfire as well, even though it was already way down. It's days of not being correlated with any other asset may be over.
can't imagine there was too much of an influence, if any at all.
Bitcoin has been falling steadily since the end of December due to reports of inflation practices, stories of regulation, national crack downs on ICOs and exchanges.
Many more things than the immediate occuramces of the stock market.
Yep, I guess that too, it will go up from here on :D
Would be an awesome occurrence for everyone!
Moon.. moon for everyone!
ALL IS WELL
Man we really need this rebound. I'm sure it's all Market manipulation but I wish I had known it was going to happen when it started happening.
What is your buying plan right now? Will you buy at intervals like seeing it goes up you buy more or will you put all money in one go? and why?
I never buy all at once, ever. Too easy to get "stuck" that way. I like to buy on dips personally. I will buy more on the next pullback in btc, wherever that may happen, and I will use a stop loss just below the recent low hit today $5,900 area. That works as a decent trade with great risk/reward potential.
Yes, BTC seems to working to get back on schedule... but there are a lot of scared puppies out there!
So true but just keep an watchful eye on it and play the game.
Being a bit overwhelmed by financial markets and all things crypto, I have been a bit nervous about what will happen to my small investment ... I like your positive outlook here.
Oh God!
I just missed it :D
I think it is all about the politics. I mean some politicians of big countries and governments made a lot of negative statements last weeks.
Besides, it should temporary. I believe it will recompense.
The bottom for me is a comfortable price I have predetermined to take a position at. Whatever happens after that on its what up I wait it out.
I'm seeing it sneak up a little bit. I just checked my Bittrex account and it was up over $7600. I've heard from a couple of good sources that Lisk and Navcoin are supposed to have good a year this year... so I been stocking a little of both.
Nice! I don't trade much outside a couple of the "blue-chip" names. I personally like btc, steem, eos, xrp, neo, and ether.
The bottom will be when Bitcoin reaches 0 USD. And it will. Maybe not today, maybe not in 5 years, but soon or later it will.
What's the trade?
Everyone theses days are extremely exciting. You have to play this like it’s the stock market buy the lows and sell the highs. Just don’t get to greedy and don’t buy more then you are able. Hopefully if this is done we will see it grow again and make some bitcoin/ money at it.
The prices today were just crazy. But I just have this feeling that the market will recover sooner than we expect it would.
Definitely going to bounce back! Stocks and cryptocurrency are following annual trends in relation to Chinese New Year!
Just hope Bitcoin recover fast. It is affecting all other crypto like our steem too.
Good post, thanks for sharing
Yeah, I think the market will finally stabilize. After the bad news and press for cryptocurrencies we finally hear some good news now. And most of the weak links cashed out scared for a loss.
good news? for example?
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@elleok/singapore-no-plans-to-impose-cryptocurrency-ban
https://steemit.com/iota/@elleok/city-of-taipei-to-use-iota-s-blockless-tangle-for-its-smart-city-goals
I think it is a correction and then continue a small fall, at that time if we will be in the presence of a true uptrend!
This is enlightening. Thanks
oww no bitcoin is falling downnnn
I consider this good news and i'm very optimistic that the only way to go from here is up.
Here's to continual rising. Cheers!!
I hope this bounce is sustained! Thanks for the info-share
I wish I could understand cryptos and the market better! (or have time to study),but at least posts like this give me a little glimpse of what is going on.
How did you get that screen on bittrex. I can't figure out how to look at BTC on there like you have in the main screen shot.
bottom? ahahah that's why only invest in amounts you are willing to lose... If I lose $50, no biggie, no headaches, I still have a future. I lose $50,000, I'm fucked.
I think that China and India have a lot of unwinding and settling to do before we hit a real bottom. Regulation is coming and the uncertainty is still there when it comes to the role of government.
I'd feel better about BTC and ETH if they would just spread out the hashing power. A majority of hashing power for both countries resides in a few large pools and they are in just a couple countries.
The hashing power is the network for proof of work coins like Bitcoin and ETH, so I think it's a bit unnerving for holders to know that the network could be significantly hindered by one or two countries.
Until that is resolved, going back up will be slow going.
I don't know if I'm ready to call the bottom yet. Price hasn't even erased yesterday's red candle and we're still firmly in at least a short term bearish trend...
But things are looking positive for a change! :)
i believe it will go down again tomorrow. it seems like the trend is green red green red....
So good time to invest now on all kinds of cryptos right? might buy some STEEM... don't really know still thinking