Average exchange rate since January 2016. Going even earlier wouldn't have changed the results much as the highest exchange rate was so much more than the average. Bitcoin exchange rate was pretty much over the average from April 2016 to November 2018 and below the average after that.
If you draw the average as moving exponentially weighted we are currently at the top of the average curve and that means the rate should go down.
Average exchange rate since January 2016. Going even earlier wouldn't have changed the results much as the highest exchange rate was so much more than the average. Bitcoin exchange rate was pretty much over the average from April 2016 to November 2018 and below the average after that.
If you draw the average as moving exponentially weighted we are currently at the top of the average curve and that means the rate should go down.