Bitcoin is now less than a year away from its next block reward halving.
What will that do for prices?
Well, if history is any indication, it will do quite a lot for prices.
Since bitcoin began, there have been two previous block reward halvings.
Each time, the price of bitcoin started going up roughly 1 year before the event.
And, it kept going up for approximately 1 year after the event.
Which would give us roughly 2 years of very bullish price action.
Sounds good to me!
These halving events are what make the cycles we see in bitcoin between bull and bear markets so predictable in my opinion.
Whether it plays out in a similar fashion this time around is anyone's guess, but we are already off to a good start.
The next bitcoin halving is projected to happen in the middle of May, which is roughly one year from today.
And as you might have noticed, bitcoin is already starting to go up...
If you need even more context for what happened the couple times around bitcoin's halving event, check these numbers out:
Price one year before first halving - $2.55
Price one year after first halving - $1,037
Price one year before second halving - $268
Price one year after second halving - $2,525
Price one year before third halving - $7,100
Price one year after third halving - ???
Wowza!
Those are some absolutely massive 2 year returns!
Not sure if we will see those kinds of numbers again, but if we did, the price of bitcoin is going a heck of a lot higher than the previous $20k peak we saw back in late 2017.
Something over $100k per coin is not out of the question...
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
i hope so! 20k was too little
I agree.
Obviously, the potential growth is no longer like it was at the first halving event, but I´m expecting a minimum of 5X on current price, which would take us to my long announced goal of $42K.
I think we go at least that high before this next bullish cycle ends.
Ye, this price is the minimum that I'm pointing at, so I'm absolutely sure that BTC will reach this value, sooner or later in the next bull cycle.
Works for me!
I don't think you are modeling the price action correctly. The growth has been exponential from the start, however we are in the upper end of the function (first halvening 1037/55 = 18X, second halvening 2525/268 = 9.4X Third halvening = Y/7100 = 4.5X decreasing as we go on in time. ) Y=$28000
Check the numbers on that first one again ;)
Also, look at how much higher each peak is than the previous peak...
We've entered a totally new landscape and the past is no longer a good indicator of the future. Retail investors were driving up the price last peak. Now we have retail, institutions, corporations, etc. In addition, the fundamental developments like Lightning network will bring on functionality for the network to no longer be bogged down.
Also, you've got 2 plot points on that graph. Not a lot of info to begin with.
Personally, I'm expecting Bitcoin to be around 200k late 2020. Another factor driving it up is an unavoidable recession; possibly the worst one ever.
You think that recession will be good for bitcoin though? For much of 2016-2019 it has traded like a risky asset...
bitcoin was created because of the corrupting factors that cause recessions. i have to assume it will do well during one
Correct, though most of the people buying in currently are doing so for speculative purposes. Speculative assets get hit the hardest during times of recession.
Ironically enough, I think Bitcoin becomes much less speculative during a recession. It's already been shown that fiat currencies that hyper inflate lose more value than Bitcoin did during the bear market. Fiat that hyper inflates during a crypto bull run will incentivize everyone in that country to exit.
If they can of course. Banning crypto, including throwing people caught with it in jail, during a time of large capital outflows could likely happen.
That is more in line with my thinking as well. Some will think it's crazy ,but we have entered an entirely different period now with the institutions coming into play.$20 000 is pocket change and the hole place I think is going to go ballistic at some point. I do expect Bitcoin to drop again shortly for the Institution money to come on board in the coming weeks. We will have to wait and see if that happens and then it should pick up momentum.
Everyone seems to be calling for a $6k retest at some point here.
Global recession?
$100,000? Can’t wrap my head around that 🧐
Seems crazy, but it got to $20k mostly driven by retail. Imagine what institutional investor fomo might do to the price...
Wow. That will really be a dream come true
For me as well.
I totally agree, things are heating up in the crypto markets
Hopefully this is just the beginning.
we'll see👀 😆🚗
Yes we will, less than 2 years away.
BTC at 8180 shortly after your post. Maybe you just started a bull run! LOL! ;)
Haha that was all me!
The Litecoin halving is up first so it will be interesting to see how it plays out and the implications it will have for the bitcoin setuo which as you mention is probably already underway!
Posted using Partiko iOS
True, though I don't think litecoin will be a very good barometer for bitcoin. They are so different in terms of adoption...
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