Hello Steemit Members,
To my followers and any hitch hikers, please hear me out. I have been very accurate with my predictions. I may give a broad speculative perspective, but I do say which way Bitcoin is more likely to head and I have yet to be wrong. I told people to buy at $6k instead of $8k. I told people to buy at $9k when it had a break out. I told people sell at $11k and re-buy back at $9.5k. Anyone who followed my posts exactly sold near the top and bought near the bottom. While I don't expect to be this accurate all the time, it does say something about my track record. Why am I boasting about myself? Because I want to warn potential buyers to be very cautious at this time. I was more bullish 3 weeks ago (not truly bullish), but I thought Bitcoin had a good chance to break out of it's downtrend. I still think there's a chance it might, but not as much as before. We just saw Bitcoin fail to break out of the head and shoulders pattern. A lot of volume came in when Bitcoin failed. This is a bad sign. Right now is not the time to get into Bitcoin if you are on the side lines. It's like a 50-50 gamble, we need to wait for more confirmation to be truly bullish or bearish. So, what are we looking for?
The Good:
To be bullish, we need to break above $12.5k with a lot of volume. Volume is very much needed to confirm that Bitcoin is truly out of it's bear trend. This is when we can start thinking about new highs. Until that happens, Bitcoin is in a bear trend which makes trading risky. Bitcoin is currently sitting at $10.6k, this is near the 20 SMA. Bitcoin has bounced off this spot already in the last week. This makes it a possible reversal zone to keep the momentum going. I expect a short term bounce at least, but to see this bounce to be truly good it would need to break the high of $11.8k. This would likely bring in buyers and a chance to break out of $12.5k will come in play. Holding above this level will likely bring Bitcoin to $17k.
The Bad:
For the bear side, a break below $9k is something we do not want to see. If Bitcoin breaks below 9k, it is very likely to go to the green uptrend line around $6.5k to $7k. This is a potential reversal area, and I expect a short-term bounce. This would be a good area to do an intra-day move, but I fear the market won't keep this level. After failing to break 12.5k so many times, it might panic sell further. This may cause the price to break to $5k, and possibly even $3k. I believe that is more likely than it reversing at the green uptrend line for good. However, that is if we break that low, we are still in a good area. A break below $10.6k will likely cause Bitcoin to fall to $9.8k. And a break below $9.8k is when I might start worrying. We are currently sitting at $10.6k.
Remember, buying now is risky and as a trader reducing risk and managing money is how we make money. Taking risky plays will end up emptying our wallets in the long run. Never go all in or all out at one price level either. If you still want to buy Bitcoin while it's down a little, remember to use little volume. Play it safe and study some money managing strategies. You will be much more profitable in the long run. If you know how to short Bitcoin, you can still make money. Going long is not the only way to make money in the market, but shorting is more risky than going long. Study before taking a short position!
All follows, comments, votes, and resteems are appreciated greatly.
Thank you!
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