BOLD PREDICTION: Bitcoin is Simply in an initial Bear Trap. A Massive Bull Run is Impending.

in #bitcoin7 years ago

What if the drop in Bitcoin's price from $20,000 to $9,000 is only a blip on the radar in 5-7 years? What if this is simply the bear trap before a giant bull run?

It might well be. But the reason we don't consider this possibility is that we often think of cryptocurrencies in too short a timeframe.

We already wonder if we've gone through 3/4 of the cycle of a bubble, just because of what happened in 2017, peaking with a meteoric rise to $20,000 in December 2017.

Now, I don't think that crypto is a bubble, but the chart I'm referencing provides a great look at exponential growth potential in the future. So, let's reset our perspective.

The "Phases of a Bubble" chart developed by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue has been floating around all over the internet lately, as investors look for direction on where bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market cap go next.


(By Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Attribution, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8327217)

Thus arises my core prediction: we are only in the bear trap of this market cycle. Again, I will mention that I don’t believe this is a bubble, but with an asset as volatile as crypto, this curve could actually represent the market cycle, especially for an asset class that at the current moment is primarily driven by news and perception.

Now, I will be the first to admit that the chart does look eerily accurate when compared to the trajectory of Bitcoin at its current point, in suggesting that we are already on our way down after a burst from the level of “New Paradigm”. But that is exactly why we must now prove our worth in providing predictions on the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, especially when it seems foolish to argue otherwise (as I am), suggesting that we are poised for a breakout.

Thus, my bold prediction is born, and let’s continue to look at why it might just come true.

Check this out, as additional perspective on our current state can come from this Forbes article, which literally pondered if the “Bitcoin bubble” was about to burst….in December 2013!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/#619fb91c36b

The best part about this article is that the author uses the same “Phases of a Bubble” chart to illustrate his point, comparing it to a BTC performance graph that truly does appear to show BTC in the “Fear” phase, post bull-trap.

But such is the nature of crypto, as we now know that more than 4 years later, Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies have posted massive gains and experienced significant growth.

Now, you might be thinking…ok well what if we experienced the bear trap was in late 2013 (when the linked article was written), and now we truly have experienced the meteoric rise and face an impending crash?

That is where belief in the future of the space becomes a large factor. Will the cryptocurrency market and the industries it is creating persist and continue to grow, or fade away?

I believe that we are only at the start of a long journey. And after playing devil’s advocate, I return to my bold prediction:

Late 2013 was only a blip on the radar of where we are now…so much so that we don’t even hear anyone talking about it anymore. And that is exactly what 2017 will be in 5-7 more years. Simply the bear trap that kicked off the start of something much, much larger.

Picture1.png
(Original chart from https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/, subsequently edited by me.)

The crypto market is set to boom, and personally, I feel lucky to be alive at a time when such an incredible investment opportunity has been born.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. The information and thoughts I've provided do not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, and should not be treated as such. This is simply my analysis of a cryptocurrency, and I do not recommend that any cryptocurrency be bought, sold, or held due to my analysis.

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I know with yesterday the market was in the green, a lot of people thought we were out of it - bear trap without a doubt. I think we will possibly see 7 - 7.5k BTC then a bounce off that. Not as much FUD as there was a few weeks ago and people see more confident at the moment.

Absolutely man, I’ve been targeting a buy zone right around 7600 to add to my positions, with secondary support around 7200. Let’s see if it goes down that far. Long term I’m feeling really good.

Solid idea. Im planning on doing pretty much the same. If it does dip below 7k, I don't think it will be much further

Agreed. And 8400 is also a very interesting level, as it’s associated with the downtrend, so if we may just bounce off of that again before we even reach the 7000s

There is a regulatory meeting in Europe next week that people are bullish on, so hopefully this is the latest bottom before a recovery. If we break support at 7,000, I personally think we will fall faster from there to 5.5k.

Yeah, let's see what happens. Regulation tends to drop the crypto markets initially, but is crucial to the long term staying-power of cryptos, so we'll see how it plays out. That being said, a positive signal towards the future at that meeting could provide a large bounce.