The last few days have shaken the confidence of many Bitcoin holders esp. if you look at some of the videos from the "guru's" on Youtube.
While my opinions can change with new information, I am not concerned at this time with the rise of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) over the weekend.
Let me explain...
First and foremost, one weekend does not define a crypto currency. Prior to this weekend, BCH had decoupled from Bitcoin for several weeks and had flattened out (that's when I got out of BCH and moved it to BTC). Upon BCH's initial fork, it did move as high as $600+ but the mania quickly subsided as BTC went on to explode higher taking the rest of the crytpo's with it.
No other crypto comes close to the infrastructure, payment acceptance, or recognition that BTC does. Almost every exchange and wallet out there deals in BTC in some form or other. Many miners pay in BTC even if you are mining something else like Dash or Litecoin. The number of businesses accepting BTC is growing every day. You will even see "Bitcoin accepted here" when you drive around town. NO OTHER CRYPTO HAS THIS KIND OF FOLLOWING.
It's been a couple months since the the launch of BCH. There was no mass exodus. There was no widespread adoption. And there was NO massive growth in BCH or decline in BTC.
Prior to this weekends price pump, the BCH chart looked like it was dying. Something had to be done. It's no secret that there is concern about mining concentration with BTC and some of the folks who control the mining power behind BTC may have attempted to form a coup in order to make it more profitable for them (for now) to switch over to BCH. Keep in mind that the miners are largely unknown but the big players are assumed to be in China and southern Russia. Some folks (mainly on Youtube) assume the miners drive the market but I think this may be a flawed argument. The consumers drive the market and as long as they can do what they need to on Bitcoin, I do not see BCH being a major player any time soon.
BCH does claim to offer some advantages - at least at THIS TIME. The two main advantages that BCH has over BTC is 1) lower transaction fees and 2) faster processing. However, it's important to note that there were already other crypto's providing similar advantages and they have not come close to overtaking BTC. In other words the fees may be offset by the value that BTC offers in proven reliability and general acceptance. In other words, if someone did decide to accept BCH, they would likely convert it to BTC at some point and that would generate even more fees than if they had just done the transaction in BTC in the first place.
Keep in mind that Betamax came out first. VHS beat out Betamax in the end even though beta was technically superior. What beat out Beta? The general thinking is that Beta did not offer adult movies in it's format and VHS exploded onto the scene with X rated movies. The rapid general acceptance quickly established it as THE STANDARD format for video tape even though Beta was technically superior. VHS was GOOD ENOUGH for most folks and Beta soon became obsolete. The moral of this story is that 1) it is the CONSUMER that drives emerging technology by way of their acceptance and 2) the best technology does not always win if the alternative is "good enough".
I'm sure one day that BTC will be replaced with a better form of currency exchange but for now, I do not see any other crypto challenging it's supremacy. Of course we will be watching BCH to see what it does from here and if it does start to gain wide spread acceptance, it might make sense to move back into BCH at some point. But one weekend alone does not define a crypto and, if anything, is more suspect of a PUMP 'n DUMP than anything else (and I've seen may of those over the years). Real value is defined by MANY new highs followed by higher lows. BCH has not even come close to that.
In closing, here is a link that I think you will find useful. It allows you to compare the crypto's in order to get an apples-to-apples comparison. By several measures, BTC is still KING OF THE CRYPTO'S. Those who are saying otherwise are being a bit premature and are assuming that the miners have more of a voice than the consumers. I do not believe this to be a valid argument and even though BCH may be cheaper and faster at this time, it does not guarantee to always be the case and according to the number of transactions occurring on BTC, it must be "good enough".
What do you think? Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH) replace Bitcoin (BTC)? If so, why? We want to hear from you.
Act Accordingly,
The Market Vigilante
I personally think that it is still king.
What I learned from this article... The Porn Industry helps decide what technologies succeed or fail. ;-)
That would be a valid assessment. The same can be said for early adoption of Bitcoin by the Silk Road.