As an avid gold -0.79% and metals trader I always was looking for an edge on the market. I'm always reading the Gloom Boom and Doom reports not to take their advice, but to get a sense of market sentiment.
The Doomers have been calling for $8000 $5000 I even saw a $3000 pullback for Bitcoin 3.79% . More often then not I find these calls distract new investors and traders into the direction the Smart money want them to go.
So another Gloom report came out yesterday right at the point when we were poised to break the downward trend line . The headlines across the board read "Coincheck's site hacked, trading halted". You would think with all the bearishness in the market (especially with BTC' futures contracts expiring the same day and all the noise about market manipulation) we would surely see $8000 on this news right? Not even close. Buyers quickly came in to relieve weak hands of their coins at a discount.
The Charts:
Though connecting two points on a chart normally means nothing in my opinion, when those two points become support in parallel with another trend line , together forming a channel, they tend to hold more weight. Though we are still in a short term downward channel we are now coming to a crossroad with longer term trend line where we are finding buyers. Not just any buying, but strong buying as evident by the long wicks to the downside. Any attempt to sell into the long term trend line has been met with strong buying.
A pattern has formed in the correction from 17k that is almost identical to the original correction from 20k. Patterns often repeat because the herd is so predictable (see chart below).
I also want to point out the highly speculative margin markets. There is a battle brewing there as well as shown on the second chart below. Though short interest popped the past few days, long interest has been steadily increasing, indicative that this is far from a doom boom and gloom report.
Sentiment:
At this point I believe anyone that wanted to exit the market or thought we were going to $5000 has already sold. Seriously if you thought we were going to $5000 or $8000 would you still be holding? You would have been long out of this market weeks ago, and those weak hands are likely gone. So that leaves us with traders and speculators selling right now. This is the price action we are seeing not long term holders bailing or those that just came in exiting their positions. Remember when my buddies all of a sudden found it necessary to call me on the same very same day within hours of each other to buy Ethereum' right before the pullback? Those same guys and even more friends are now asking, should I buy now? Gauge market sentiment on what is going on around you. If you want the temperature and what the weather is like outside your house you do not need turn on the weather channel. You go outside and check!
Bottom Line:
All this recent activity leaves the shorts gambling in an extremely thin market where most of the selling has already occurred. The low hanging fruit has already been picked so to speak. This increases the likelihood of a short squeeze especially if we start moving up through the down trend.
I am always open to alternate opinions, but please answer one question before you start throwing up charts with EW, Fibb and triangles showing a path to $5000. WHO DO YOU THINK IS SELLING HERE other than bots, day traders, and speculators? HODL's? Those that bought at 19k? Often it is more than triangles, lines, and patterns on a chart, it is what is going on right around you. Those that were skeptical at $2000-$4000 and $7000 are now looking to buy in. How do I know this? Its all around me in everyday conversation!
To be clear we can move lower and only time will tell. There is no crystal ball weather forecasts in the markets. Its like the Superbowl, your betting on the best team you think has a chance of winning. Right now my money is on the Bulls!