Hi folks!
So, today I'm going to talk a bit about the recent crash of bitcoin from 5k dollars down to almost 3.9K approx. While it was understandable for the market to consolidate a bit after BTC reached 5k, a 22% consolidation, in my opinion was quite unexpected. So I took the liberty of looking at June-July crash of BTC and comparing the same with the current scenario.
I did the maths and the numbers seem extremely familiar to the past. On the short term, I do see a much larger correction, which I'll speak about soon, but the long term looks promising indeed.
So here goes:
A bit of history first-
Note: All data is taken from BFXdata.com
Back in June, BTC touched a whooping 3K dollars and was followed by a pretty big consolidation.
Lets refer to the below graph so that it's easier to correlate to my analysis.
As can be seen,
From (1) to (2), there was big drop, roughly from 3000 to 2286. Almost back to 76% of original value.
From (2) to (3), it rose from 2286 to 2728...! That was a nice little jump of 19%!
From (3) to (4), it dropped back from 2728 to 2023! That's another drop to 74% of its original value.
From (4) to (5), it went back up from 2023 to 2785! Another nice jump of 37%!
And then came the final dip! (5) to (6) saw it go from 2785 to 1809! and that was a major drop to 64% of its original value from 2785!
Following this, it went to reach an all time high, (6) to (7, its in the picture below), from 1809 all the way to 5000! A huge 277% rise in value!
We shall apply this historic data, to the current BTC crash and then try to derive inference as to the price of BTC over the next few days!
So BTC dropped to 3933, all the way from 5000! that was a major correction back to 78% of original value.
Compared to last time, it dropped 78% instead of 76%. Therefore, one needs to understand, that the next rise will not be equal in percentage to the old rise, but a ratio of it.
Therefore,
Next rise = (76/78)x119% = 116%
3897x1.16 = 4518
Similarly, next fall = (1.19/1.16)x.74 = .76
4518x.76 = 3433
Next rise = (.74/.76)x1.37 = 1.33
3433x1.33 = 4565
Final fall = (1.37/1.33)x.64 = .66
4565x.66 = 3009
Next milestone = (.64/.66)x2.77 = 2.68
3009x2.68 = 8094
Note: Since this is a volatile market, expect a deviations of up to 10-15% on the above mentioned values.
As of now, we have already hit the 4500 mark. From here on, over the next few days, as per the analysis, the price should slowly drop to 3433 dollars with a margin of 10-15%. And from there on, the story shall unfold.
I really look forward to your thoughts on this analysis. Comment on the article to share your thoughts.
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Disclaimer: Technical analysis done in this article is not financial advice.
Thanks,
Akash
I think that the market cap is important to keep tabs on what is really happening. If money is actually moving out of crypto then we are looking at a prolonged bear market like you describe.
I believe we are on our way to recovery and if we can break past the $160B-170B market cap zone then the next stop is $200B. We dipped down to $134.75B MC at our recent low... Already back up to $156.68B.
I think there are some big whales messing with people too :P
I completely agree with your point of view. To be honest, the reason why I made the current deduction the way it is, is because BTC more or less controls the entire crypto sentiments. Therefore, it going up/down will trigger a similar reaction to the altcoins.
But yes, you are absolutely correct on the fact that if we cross 160B-170B market cap, or 4700 dollars in BTC, then the next stop is pretty much at 5500 dollar in BTC if you ask me!
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