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RE: Mike Novogratz says Bitcoin won't approach $20k again for 3-4 months, I think he's wrong

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Apologies @chris-yoder, if I left the impression that I was attributing the drop to what was happening in the futures market. I was looking at the futures data in terms of what the futures traders’ main sentiment might be concerning the price pattern over the January to June period of 2018.

More generally, it is an interesting subject to get into what caused a drop that took place in the past (for Coin X or Stock Y), given that almost always multiple variables are at play in generating a particular outcome in terms of a price change pattern of a certain sort.

It is extremely common, as you know, for writers to jump behind a change and quickly pronounce what was its cause. Their analysis is usually premature and oversimplified (IMHO), and I have come to the conclusion that their personal incomes require that they produce these “analytical articles” whenever a big price change takes place.
You will see a related discussion in my article here: https://www.marketstatsanalytics.com/marketspeaktrans.html Here I take apart the media discussion of the August 2015 flash crash in the stock market.