I agree with most of your points, but I am concerned about this one:
"5. Segwit 2X:
It seems likely that Segwit 2X will now pass. This won't solve the scaling issues forever but will help."
I just wrote an article on why, which I'll link below (apologies for the self-promotion), but to paraphrase, SegWit2x will not do much to help scaling or fees compared to even a modest block size increase (which Satoshi expressly suggested), it may be difficult or impossible to remove later, and the real intent of it is to "create off-chain transactions" which literally violate the Bitcoin white paper.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lexiconical/seg-wit-is-a-trojan-horse-bitcoin-scaling-debate-explained
Here's some r/btc threads relevant on scaling:
This thread notes skepticism we'll even see the 2x part, which I share to some degree:
~~~ embed:btc/comments/6lcmia/so_is_the_2x_part_of_segwit_2x_going_to_happen/ reddit metadata:fGJ0Y3xodHRwczovL3d3dy5yZWRkaXQuY29tL3IvYnRjL2NvbW1lbnRzLzZsY21pYS9zb19pc190aGVfMnhfcGFydF9vZl9zZWd3aXRfMnhfZ29pbmdfdG9faGFwcGVuL3w= ~~~
Interesting. Thanks I will check out those links!