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Seems easy to predict what the Fed will try to do to Bitcoin - they'll try to kill it, however, in the long-run, it seems BTC's scarcity will win - after the halvening.

There will undoubtedly be wild price fluctuations on exchanges/casinos such as Bitmex, Bybit and Binance that push prices up and down to liquidate leveraged futures positions held by novices who don't know any better.

My hope is people will stop betting on casinos (Bybit/Bitmex) that do nothing to improve BTC's scarcity, and, more will simply buy and hold and wild price fluctuations of 10~20% (or more) are to be expected as BTC goes up in the months and years to come.

Have you already layed the dotcom bubble over the recent btc price movement ? ;)

Not at all. Is it exactly the same? However, I still think that with stocks issued by Wall Street firms, the supply is unlimited, with BTC and better alt-coins, the supply is scarce. I do hope the two are very much different as I am betting that the crypto market will rise in due time.

yea but the question is when does btc fishtail break away from the stock markets..
maybe when people stop trading btc for usd? or when tether is backed by gold?
I dunno...

Actually, I really don't think it's about the correlation between S&P and BTC. The main correlation for days like these is, how long will the FED have the power to bust BTC using futures on the CME. Until then, BTC is rather fucked.