I'm often ask questions like "When should I buy bitcoin?"
My answer: Yes.
When you buy matters less than whether or not you buy and hold.
To be clear, it's not just about bitcoin (the currency) or Bitcoin (the protocol).
It's about cryptographically secure, immutable distributed ledgers. This is the best form of money ever invented, and it can not be manipulated or controlled by governments, banks, or corporations. If "bitcoin" itself shows weaknesses, other cryptocurrencies will increase in marketshare as we saw earlier this year.
The question isn't when you should buy. It's why you aren't buying today.
And yes, I get the chart won't always look like this. As I've said many times before, I watched bitcoin go from $1200 down to $250 in 2014 (and I didn't sell). The reason I didn't sell is because of content like this article from @falkvinge written in 2013: The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000. I thought it made a good argument in 2013, and I think it makes a good argument today as well. As Rick Fakvinge mentioned 4 months ago, his predictions have been quite accurate so far.
I posted this picture on Twitter and on Facebook because I realized this message needs to be repeated over and over again. Fiat currency is losing purchasing power and unless people hear about bitcoin enough to be sick of hearing about it, they won't spend the time to learn about it. If they don't learn about it, they may come to regret it in the future.
That's why I put together some videos at understandingblockchainfreedom.com. This stuff is hard to understand, but it can not only change lives, but change our world. It's worth understanding.
Less than 0.25% of the adult population currently has an investment in bitcoin. That’s less than one in 400 persons. The actual estimate is close to one adult in 800. On the other hand, a far higher percentage have heard of bitcoin. Publicity in the mainstream media is growing.
Over the last 12 months there were 1’700’000 new first time users of bitcoin, bringing the total number of bitcoin users to 5.6 million at the end of Sept 2017. That was a 43% increase in the number of first-time bitcoin owners.
Those new users together with the 3’900’000 previous bitcoin owners bought an estimated 4.6 million bitcoin. That’s an average of 0.82 bitcoins per user.
The supply of newly mined bitcoin over the last 12 months was nearly 700’000 coins. The remaining 3.9 million of supply came from existing holders, especially whales, who reduced their holdings as the price rose.
For more research like this see the blog I wrote today.
Luke, I agree with most of what you said, but what good is bitcoin at $100k if its value is directly linked to centralized exchanges that are just 1 execute order away from being shut down?
As it stands today, the exchanges are what gives bitcoin its value! Take away these centralized entities, what is bitcoin worth then?
This uncomfortable facts bothers me very much.
There are a lot of decentralized exchange projects and we have localbitcoins and BitShares. I was there in 2013 when MtGox went away. Bitcoin took a hit, but it came back strong. Bitcoin is not exchanges. It lives beyond them. As long as people want an non-manipulated way to store and transact value, there will be demand.
Exchanges are just for trading money for coloured paper.
When enough of the economy accepts bitcoin, it'll be a moot point.
Yes, why aren't you buying now is a solid response. Furthermore, any large pullback (and I'm sure there will be another) is definitely a good time.
Agreed.
If you are buying right now with the intention of selling it in 10 minutes, or tomorrow. Well, sure maybe now is not the best time to buy. Maybe you should wait 8 more minutes. lol.
Many of us who buy, do it with a longer term in focus. We buy today, and not expect to sell it for 6 months or even a year.
In this case, there is no special time to buy. Buy it while you can. :)
I have not sold even one satoshi in last 5 years ( for FIAT), and have no intentions to sell any in the next 5-7 years as well. HODLING is my religion now
Correct! Pullbacks are present in any type of security, that has an on going debate behind it.
Every month, I put a percentage of my wage aside to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple I don't even look at the price!! I'm just looking to hold it long term as looking at the price daily is bad for the nerves ;)
😂😂
Thanks for this informative post. We are so fortunate to be in early on crypto
currency.
I am completely agree, I heavily believe in bitcoin. This is the future, it is backed by math and not by debt and trust in legalized thieves.
But honestly...
Even if you don’t believe in crypto, leaving your hard earned wealth in fiat currencies which lose value every month is pure crazyness, people should really stop being naive and act right now!
Loving the post with the link to the article have. I really wonder what cryptocurrency will look like in 10 or maybe even til 20 years. How it will change the Royal on how we handle money and the economy in a whole.
My general rule is if you jave the cash then invest it will certainly be worth the investment in the long run. Im from South Africa so our currency take a real beating against the dollar hence it take alot to rand to buy a percentage of bitcoin. Love your articke b
Indeed, bitcoin will continue to grow. I really like this part: "The question isn't when you should buy. It's why you aren't buying today."
I was resistand to buy bitcoin at $11. Then when It hit $100 dollars I though it had reached it's potential and skipped it. When It was at $1000 I again though I missed out.
Now I finally bough at $4300, should have bough earlier.
Far too many people share this exact same story. If @falkvinge and others like him are right, many more will repeat this again and again as fiat continues to lose purchasing power and cryptocurrencies continue to improve how we think about value and programmable money.
I think that even the currant "pittance" we get out of those Bitcoin fountains will be worth something someday. 10,000 Satoshi may even buy you a car!
source
I cannot agree with you more. When the price is like 100,000 or more. It wont matter if you but at 3000 or 4000 or 5000.
you are right @lukestokes. cryptocurrency is our future
sometime i think same issue . when i am buy bitcoin for trading. i have my many friends and family . him want to trade online but all of friend said me . but i am confused when price up and down. but this information so helpful fo me.
thanks
Nice post, I agree with many points. It is an asymmetrical risk. I rarely sell. Buy and then buy more at the dips. Thanks for sharing the articles, I am going to check them out now.
My first few acquisitions of Bitcoin were from faucet apps on my phone, doodling over lunch or during a long drive with the family. Eventually, I got them into it for a month or so.
It seemed a waste for only $5 or $10 of value... Now it is work around $50 and is "diversified in BTC, ETH, EOS and a bit of BCH.
However, I'd say STEEM is more interesting to me in that it is practical like BTC and seems to be more honest to earn than Bitcoin faucets.
Yeah, I'm a big fan of STEEM as you can see from my wallet. :)
The most important thing is to be in the cryptcurrency market. The advantage of long term holding means that entry point is less important. People need to do whatever to enter into this sector. There is far too much money available which is life changing.
Even people without any money can get involved by being a part of Steemit and earn crypto that way. There are faucets that people can sign up for to start amassing small amounts of coins. The reason why people need to do this is because once they get a bit of crypto, they usually start researching and learning.
Thank you for the reminder of this...it is important to keep adding to one's positions.
Sound advice. I only started in crypto about 6 months ago buying a little bit of bitcoin here and there. I tried to watch for the peaks and troughs to find the best time to buy but you are always chasing your tail with that game.
Now I have started just buying US$200 of bitcoin each week regardless and I leave the charts to blow in the wind.
Some might see this as foolish, but in the long run I believe it will be a good investment.
PS The trickier dilemma I have now is knowing when and how much of the bitcoin to move over to steem 😎
I'm in the same boat. Actually contemplating splitting my holdings exactly between bitcoin and steem on new years eve, and watching them race for a few years.
That sounds like a really fun experiment. :)
I dont know with all the forks do you still seeing it getting to those prices or it will still reach these prices but just be delayed.
The forks do create an interesting pricing dynamic, along with the ICOs. If we took that all off the table, sure Bitcoin would be worth more, but ultimately, I look at the whole ecosystem together. As long as you're in cryptocurrencies, you're not in inflating fiat.
Whereas the real question should be : when should I sell my dollars (or euros)?!
I agree people gain a lot from hearing this message and we sure gain a lot from spreading it too.
Today we celebrated a birthday and i talked with the cousin of my wife about blockchain, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at all. The popular opinion is often the opposite, that governments can control Bitcoin, the blockchain. For this reason many shy away to invest in or learn about cryptocurrencies. The media spreads FUD around. Opinions from people who benefit from exclusion of common people in the media generate the uncertainty combined with dangerous half-knowledge and so i experienced today again that there is a long way to go to give people confidence in the development of the great technology, not a single token, a pump&dump, no, the whole movement which will disrupt many sectors and could be also a great opportunity for people who can't see it today.
My view on the investment side is long term and the price peak this year does'nt matter in this scenario because i see it as hickup, like your chart wonderfully draws. Thank you for the message!
Yeah, there's a lot of FUD out there. We have to do what we can to educate people about reality.
Good read. It's about time people realize this and claim their share in the future economy ASAP and not be left behind.
Anyway, I put in a lot of work and effort into the first post I made. Would appreciate it if you guys give it a read and share your thoughts. Would love to learn from you all.
Cheers,
@amratesh
I enjoyed it, thanks.
What you have written is totally possible even if BTC replaces just 10% of the worldwide money supply. It is a screaming buy and should be accumulated.
Thank You @lukestokes I feel the same way you do, there is never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. If I want a little dessert with my Bitcoin I have a little physical silver on the side plate.........
This is the future but I really do feel that another hard pullback is coming. The weight of all these scam ICO coins is undeniable. It is just like the shitcoins of 2013 / 2014. Few will survive.
But no matter what..... we will keep blogging!
I agree, but again, if the target price is $100,000 or $1,000,000 there's a lot of room for fluff and scam and everything in between. It will all shake out in the end.
HODL
This is my religion.
wow I agree with you....gradually buying and holding bitcoin is good in the long run
It is true that it cant be manipulated by the banks but it sure can be influenced by the big names within the banks. For example Jamie Dimon's statement about Bitcoin being a fraud scared people out and created a buy in opportunity for the whales. FUCK THE WHALES! Stack those cryptos up and hold on for dear life people! Good things come to those who wait!
Why F the whales? They are just people like everyone else, acting in their own self-interests. It's easy to condemn "the other" but I hope to be a nice, rich whale some day also. It was a buy opportunity for everyone, not just the whales.
But yeah, long term, it's barely a blip.
I was acting on emotion at the time but i should restate that as most whales. There are lots of whales that are greedy and don't give a damn about whats good for cryptos or the rest of society, they are just in it for the gains that they know they will get in this lucrative market. Take ancap47 for example, just another investor like the rest of us that is getting silenced by the whales. Steemit is losing freedom of speech because of whales like that downvoting someone until they lost all the steem they have accumulated on a post, and on top of that you cant even view the post anymore. Once again, acting on emotion when i said that because there are a handful of whales i do respect but its only because they have respect for the average investor.
Seems like an unstable whiner to me. 15+ posts going on and on because he was flagged? Seems to me he deserved it. Spamming someone's post comments with links isn't acceptable anywhere. That's what a flag is for. For this person not to understand that and then go on and on and on about it... kind of embarrassing.
I was flagged for months by a massive whale who was a self-described asshole. I didn't cry about it. I lost a lot of potential rewards but that's just it: they are potential. Anyone who bothers to read the white paper would know that. Didn't bother me too much because I'm not just here for rewards.
You gave a pretty poor example of whale acting poorly. Seems to me they did exactly what they should do and now Steemit is better off for it.
freedom of speech. that is all
People are free to say whatever they want and deal with the consequences of what they say. This person's actions are forever on the blockchain. They can be viewed by anyone via browsers like steemd.com. Thankfully, the steemit.com interface hides content from people like this who appear unstable and needing way too much attention. If you think their content shouldn't have been flagged, you're welcome to get your own Steem Power and give a counter up vote. You could even build your own blockchain front end if you don't like how Steemit displays things. It's all open source.
I think you are 100%.
Do you not think their is a possibility in government making a crypto currency that incorporates a taxable system to suite them? And then making it a law that everyone switches over to it rather than cash?
They can do whatever they want, but it's not guaranteed people will use it. Most likely people will use whatever currency they want and only switch to government coin as needed for government related services. Ideally, the scenario you outlined would mean more and more people turn to agorism and avoid government service all together to meet their needs voluntarily instead of through theft and threats of violence.
People should do some more homework before they start buying crypto's though. If they did, the BTC hype wouldn't drag the altcoins down as much as it does now...
I don't think the relationship between BTC and Altcoins is clear yet. It's a dynamic thing changing all the time.
Bitcoin goes up, altcoins go up. Bitcoin goes down, altcoins go down. It's not that weird either with BTC being almost half of the market cap. Profits go into altcoins to make a quick profit, then back into BTC. There definitly is a clear relationship here...
It's not that clear. I've seen it do the opposite of what you described as well. I've seen both go up and down together (thanks to things like Tether) and I've seen them move opposite to each other.
comparto tu opinion y añado que la masa son sensibles a las ultimas noticias. E intentan traer lo desconocido a su terreno de manera que le sea mas facil de gestionar , de esto que la gente familiarice BTC con reserva de altcooins
Bitcoin in 100k USD or more is possible, but that's a lot of money, I mean, how much money are in the world? is not infinite.
It is kinda infinite. Money is not backed by anything. Governments and banks can print as much or as little as they like. That is why inflation happens and the buying power of Fiat currency constantly decreases.
Value is determined in the moment of transactions. It's worth whatever anyone thinks it's worth. Take a look at how many trillions of dollars are wrapped up in derivatives markets.
Thanks for your cooperation.
Thanks @lukestokes. Good information
When should I buy bitcoin? - Now! Great article again!
Bitcoin has a lot of potential it's rise and falls happen often so there's no really I lost it all saying
Buy and sell, both important. Right now, I shorted BTC/USD , will by back soon.
A normal currency I won't be so agressive, but with bitcoin it's quite interesting due to high volatility
was wrong, im out ...took a lose of 2%
HAhaha... sorry, I know that sucks, but I had a good laugh on this one based on the timestamps of your comment. Just HODL. You'll be glad you did.
Your post is good .. also your vision at the bottom and what you do is great !!!
If some people consider crypto speculative, and Wall Street is gambling with derivatives.. then what happens if the 1.2 Quadrillion Dollars in derivatives possibly flows into crypto? Heres an older article where I talk about how we could see Bitcoin go to $274 Billion each!
https://steemit.com/derivatives/@stealthtrader/what-if-the-total-value-of-the-derivatives-market-moved-into-crypto
🤔
Hahah... that's kinda funny. It may take a portion of that market, but not that much.
Resteemed!
Bitcoin is up today!
I have a little gold and silver, but not much. I see that more as temporary disaster relief emergency fund stuff. Most likely I'll never use it though. I much prefer diversification within cryptocurrency. It's far more useful with far more potential future value, IMO.