It is a calculated estimate. I wonder if it is based on Moore's Law as technology advances it may likely be soon to reach 21 million in my opinion. Imagine if bitcoin is at 1 million a coin would it not then entice a lot more miners to hack away at bitcoin?
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i think if they can't hack bitcoin because of its increasing security- time machine will be invented lol.. they will go back in the year 2010 when the price was still low.