Time will tell how the futures markets affect the underlying price.
I think the people who expect the futures markets to set the price of bitcoin like we see in gold are actually going to be in for a rude awakening. Unlike gold, bitcoin is a true 24-hour market with mass participation direct to retail traders.
Mrs. Watanabe in Japan isn’t going to care that Chicago is closed and the future spot arb is $1,200. She’s just going to buy or sell based on what she thinks is the thing to do.
You may be right about this. I would rather warn people of the potential for bad things than be overly optimistic... but I do agree that the lack of 24/7 coverage by the futures market is its Achilles' heel for manipulating the price... until, of course, we get futures on the Topix and in Shanghai and Singapore.
... just sayin' :)