The potential dump from Mt. Gox should not impact prices materially as these will most likely traded OTC and not flood the exchanges. However, people are most likely taking some profits from the recent run higher going into Consensus. There may be too much hype and expectation from the event so holders may be scaling back a bit.
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Why do you think that OTC trades do not affect the market? Do you think that the buyer of the OTC sales will sell any of their newly acquired Bitcoin? If so, then wouldn't that OTC sale indirectly affect the price?
OTC transactions are normally made from institutional or larger investors that are accumulating assets for a longer term perspective so I do not think they will dump it immediately on the market. I would also think that the price arbitrage is probably not that large in OTC so the buyer will need to hold for some time before selling.