This is closer than anyone thinks. I read or heard somewhere (I think a Trace Mayer interview) that 90% of Bitcoin is in the hands of 5% of wallets which are holding for the long-term. Also, the creator of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto who's identity is unknown mined the first million BTC and has left it is the same wallet so that supply may never be available either. Therefore, the supply is even less than we expect.
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Yes, I have read similar things. Could be as high as 25% less due to "lost" keys/coins...