Bitcoin Billy woke up this morning and saw his shadow:
and scrambled down to $7,700 before recovering his nerve and climbing back up to the cold, cold surface of $8,500:
Billy confirms what became apparent last month: it's going to be a long, hard winter for cryptocurrency.
That there chart shows a real bear market: even at $8,600, Bitcoin's already down more than 55% from its high. In any other market, that's enough for a severe bear mauling. In the crypto market, it's reminiscent of the awful winter of 2014:
Yep, it looks an awful lot like we're going to be stuck in the cold snow for a long time.
How To Survive Crypto-Winter: Lessons From The Deep Freeze Of '14
2014 was an awful year, and 2015 was only warm by comparison. I got into this sphere in February of '14: theses tips are derived from my experience and misadventures. Two are derived from after-the-fact "what I should have done."
1. Put Your Dreams Of Crypto-Riches In Hibernation
We've all been ecstatic about the wonderful Year Of Crypto. But as fate would have it, what went up is going down. If you missed your chance to cash out, stop letting it gnaw on you. The wonderful summer's over; we just have to wait out the winter for the next one.
The most important reason you should hibernate is:
2. Be wary of ICOs!
Just as Bitcoin was starting to plunge in '14, the Great Altcoin Boom hit its height. My, it was a marvelous trainwreck! Lots of punters, my gullible self included, chasing new offerings in the frantic hope that we would catch the next Bitcoin.
In fact, we were hoping to catch up to the folks who had bought Bitcoin in '12 and early '13. We were letting the prior bull market gnaw on us! As a result, lots of us lost quite a bit: me included.
That gnawing made easy picking for scammers. They made out like proverbial bandits.
Now that winter is upon us again, it would be prudent of you to avoid ICOs entirely. Just make a note of the exciting ones, but hold off on buying them until you see how they thrive.
3. HODL, HODL, HODL!
The rout has already taken place; the time to sell is gone. Now is the time for all good cryptonauts to HODL!
If you're ever disheartened by the price charts, remember that cryptocurrency is being mainstreamed and that the bear market does not change it. Cryptocurrency's mainstreaming is baked into the cake. Even the threat of stricter regulation is evidence that crypto has hit the big leagues.
The above point is very relevant with respect to STEEM. Even as its price falls, Steemit.com is breaking new eyeball and engagement records. It's only a matter of time before it becomes as popular as Medium.com.
4. Prepare For Buying Opportunities Next Year.
True, bundling up is inconvenient. Nevertheless, doing so by paying down your fiat debt and accumulating fiat reserves is the way to keep yourself warm enough for the next spring.
5. Don't Buy In Again Until You See Flatlining
In other words, don't buy back in until you see flatlining for a few months, like the first few months of 2015. Bear-market winters are notorious for "false springs" which turn back into cold after hooking you.
One upside to crypto winter is that waiting before buying dovetails well with paying down your debt and building up a fiat reserve.
6. When You Start To Buy Do Not Go All-In: Instead, Dollar Cost Average
Once the crypto market shakes off winter, it'll flatline for a long, frustrating time. You can get rid of the frustration by seeing flatline season as an opportunity to institute a dollar-cost averaging program. Instead of fretting about crypto not bouncing back, you'll see the flatlining as giving more opportunity to buy more at the end of the month.
7. NEVER, EVER FORGET THAT CRYPTO WILL COME BACK BIGGER AND BETTER
If 2018 gets you down, just think of 2020! Think of a year when you can buy what you want with Bitcoin, when Steemit rivals Twitter, when lots of folks are looking at you, wondering how you had the courage and savvy to be an early adopter!
Now is the winter of our discontent, our frustration and our doubt. Now is the time of FUD, of desperation, even of despair. Now is the time to bend our heads, steel ourselves and resolve to see through to the coming spring.
All we have to do to get from here to there is endure. That's all we need to do. If your hope ever flags, there's lot of fellow cryptonauts to lean on!
So take heart and STEEM on!
Image credits: 1, 2 & 3 &4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 , and the Steem Store.
It seems to be shakeout time, as the weaker nerved ones rush to the exit and sell low. Where will it bottom, like you said who knows. But I agree - it will bottom out. And when it does, reverse and give us all great buying opportunities before returning greater than before. Having traded markets for many years I have learned to see certain patterns in the charts. So long as the underlying asset is of value (and Bitcoin is) then I'm in still in.
Yes, it is shake-out time. The fewer Steemians shaken off, the better.
Yes, hopefully enough Steemians have been through these cycles to get it.
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There's a lot of good pointers here, brutally honest, and to the point, this post is way undervalued esp. knowing it comes from someone in the space in 2014, when most were not.
So many good points here.... one I just said a few mins ago on my blog, telling someone there is too much innovation and onboarding happening to stay down for long.
I think I am gonna tweet this out.
Thanks for blogging! You do a nice job, I am glad you are writing. You know I cannot be seeing everything due to my life so point me here when needed or if I do not get here for a few days!
Thanks a lot yourself, Barry.
If I have any goal, it's to help people see that it's best to HODL and a bad idea to panic out. If I help keep spirits up enough so that people get through this winter, I'll have done my job.
Excellent article, excellent points. You earned this full power upvote.
Thanks so much.
This is a nicely written post @nxtblg, am sorry you got caught up in the Alton fiasco... I have been telling friends that the market will rise again. It's also good that you advised we stay clear of ICO's, or at least watch them from afar till we are sure of their stability. The winter is truly here and we need to HODL Lolz... @dee-y over and out.
Thanks for the sympathy. I learned the hard way so you don't have to. :)
The best advise
That's all I can say. It never fails
Hasn't failed me yet!
Thanks for the insight, as I wasn't into cryptos in 2014. Very interesting reading, although not exactly what I wanted to hear. I was hoping, you know, for something like don't worry, the cold will soon pass, spring is just around the corner. Oh, well, HODL it is.
If I were good at catering to those hopes, I'd be a stockbroker. ;)
Lock all doors and windows, knuckle down and we will all weather the storm :)
Haha ! Bitcoin Billy , I love it ! 😂 Too bad its going to be a long hard winter though , I better bundle up good ! very informative post @nxtblg ! sorry i missed this earlier as I have been mostly off line sick with the flu . Upped and resteemed !👍👍👍
Thanks, and I'm glad you've gotten over the flu.
Don't forget the straws ;)
Im still sick , but better then what i was , im sleepy right now and blogging from bed ! your vety welcome and haha thanks forchecking out my post on straws , appreciate your support my friend ! 😀💕👍👍👍
You've made some excellent points here. I only got into cryptos starting summer of 2017 and I bought hand over fist July til December and mostly stopped once coins had skyrocketed.
I haven't traded a single bit of my holdings for fiat since I've started--I hold 16 different types of crypto. On a side note, I did trade a bit of BCH for a 10 oz silver bar before the big crash really got underway, but other than that, I'm HODLing and accumulating when I can.
I see this as a good opportunity to add to my holdings. Seeing red so often does suck but it's also an opportunity for people who missed out entirely and for those of us who wanted to own more before we got to the prices that were hit recently.
Nice write up!
Thanks a lot, and way to keep the faith. As I said in the post, think of 2020 - especially in times when it looks like the sea of red will never disappear.
Excellent article, thank you for sharing!
there is pretty good suggestions. my first approach is hodl in such a situaition for btc. maybe wind blowing but its not winter. also ICOs might be very donerous for investores. so you right we should be careful. thanks for your helpful post @nxtblg
A few days ago I read a post where the SBD was projected from $ 50 to $ 100 by the end of the year. What do you think about that?
Not likely. SBDs are automatically generated by the rewards stream, so the supply is increasing. They're only destroyed by conversion, which is now disabled. So there's more supply.
I don't see a corresponding increase i demand.
I understand your point but where I read it was about how popular steemit is and the impact it would have if more people join us. Actually he was being optimistic as steemian
That'll help the price of STEEM more than the price of SBDs, I think.
The same is good news!...
Glad to see so!
thank you for the encouragement and advices
That was straight and so encouraging for some of us scared that all crptocurrency are shaking out of cold.
Thanks @nxtblg
It's time like this that we have to keep each other's morale up. :)
Imo it is not a winter but just some cold days for almost every crypto. "Winter is " NOT "coming!". Summer is!
You could be right. It would be a good joke on me if the cryptocurrency market bounces back.
Well spoken.... Stemit is here to stay
Definitely. It's too big to fade away, and it's big enough to benefit from the network effect.
Steemit went through a harsh winter of its own in '16 and some of '17, and it's emerged bigger and togher than ever.
I came into the crypto space last year so haven't really experienced much of the bear market up until now but one thing i have learnt is to prepare for buying opportunities. Always prepare for the dip.
Thanks for the advise
Glad to! Just remember to hang on, and think of 2020!
great stuff! I heard earlier that "the blockchain has been made, and it will not be deleted. the technology is here and till be around for quite some time" I totally believe that. its not like one day we are going to wake up and the entirety of crypto is going to pull a Bitconnect exit scam. And for sure, don't go all in! dollar for dollar is about as good as it gets! keep the information flowing and keep sharing with your friends!
Yep: the genie cannot be put back in the bottle. In a kind-of perverse way, the promulgated regulations of crypto are close to a guarantee that it'll be mainstreamed. Mainstream folks still like regulated.
dude for sure. i was reading a few more comments and you mentions hang on and think of 2020. thats what everyone needs to do. what is your goal for crypto? Mine is to maintain a passive income and maybe be able to stay at home longer with my family and maybe a small part time job. you have a wealth of knowledge it seems, so please keep on sharing.
Actually, I've been dreaming of a place in the countryside. #homesteading 's becoming a trend.
Thanks for your kind words.
thats awesome. i have turkeys running around my backyard as we speak because they always get out of my neighbors enclosure hahaha, they named them thanksgiving and Christmas! one for each holiday. but that's awesome. When you do a post about what you want to do in the future ill make sure to see it! i absolutely love the idea of being self sufficient. good luck!
Every crypto is covered with snow But i agree with you that its time to hold it. you explained it with a very funny way pictures are very funny in the view of this post
Thank you. Remember to keep hope!
@nxtblg finally a post that I can understand about cryptocurrency jeje
Remember Winter is comming :P
Thank you.
My thoughts exactly, Strong hands win..!!
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@priyathamreddy/must-see-post-for-all-cryprocurrency-investors-right-now-black-friday-of-cryptocurrency
Yep, strong and enduring hands win.
nice little story you narrated there at the beginning :D
Thank you.
Excellent post @nxtblg - I think of all these points, dollar cost averaging is the most important and effective when it comes to investing. The rest are excellent too! Thanks for sharing this.
Thank you!
Dollar-cost averaging is one of those "I wish I'd thunk of it in 2015" points.
I agree there! I would love to talk more about your work on Steemit, are you on Discord?
Uh...sorry, I don't have an account there.
No problem! Are you on Steemit chat? I am working on some really cool upcoming projects that I would love to talk to you about too.
Just fired it up now.
I've read quite some articles about the current situation but reading from an experienced crypto investor is reassuring so thank you for this post. I've thought about buying some crypto for a while now (buy the dip they say) but what I get from your experience is that it's better to wait a bit more. Anyway followed and looking forward to similar posts.
Yes, I'd wait before bringing in outside money. On the other hand, I wouldn't sell any crypto unless I really needed the money (eg. to pay down debt.) There is a chance that 2019 will be better than I feared; HODLing keeps you in the game.
when everyone says that the right time to sell cryptocurrency is just the right time to buy cryptocurrency.....
that's it
Yeah, especially if the sector appears dead.
Anyone who bought Amazon stock in 2002 made a ton of money. Hell: even buying Yahoo in '02 would have scored a big profit.
I've stopped worrying about Bitcoin Billy recently. Now my thing is EOS Willy.
By the way, this is something worth checking. It's @tibra thoughts on financial advice and alt coin manipulation.
Then I hope Willy is good to you. :)
It is. Much more stable... but anyway. Do not listen to my financial advice. What's good for me might be bad for you.
Hello nxtblg..! good post
interesting post bro good job
Thank you.
Hello nxtblg..! good post amazing