We all know all the great ideas came from the state of meditation/ relaxation in the nature So, as I took a small break ( it turned on to be a lot bigger as I'm writing this ) from studying for an exam I decided to go for a shower.
While I was in this hot shower my body and mind were completely relaxed. As I was thinking of diverse stuff I have started thinking about the crypto market recent drop. One really cool idea came into my mind:
How many people actually lose their bitcoin or how many people will actually die and noone will be able to find out their bitcoin adresses in the future?
Well, we all know that there are 21 million BTC as max supply. A lot of BTC has been lost, a lot is held by whales/satoshi nakamoto etc. Let's make a quick thinking test.
Let's assume that in 10-15 years less than half of BTC will be lost forever and we will have only 10 million BTC all over the world. Once I've made this math I realised how much rare Bitcoin will get and how much people ( you and me and others ) love RARE STUFF.
Take a look at yeezys! Yeezys are shoes produced by adidas in limited edition which got a lot of HYPE from the people as they're limited. One pair can cost up to $5000 or even more if I'm not sure. Their manufacturing price is about 75$ according to article linked below.
Ok ok, but they are shoes... They actually have value and you can't wear a Bitcoin , Octavian. You can not compare physical assets with virtual ones.
I would say you guys are completely wrong. Take a look on this article. There are some actual virtual gaming goods that are sold for even $635,000!! You heard it right $635,000 f**king usd dollars!!
I've also been a gamer for so long and I know that a lot of people actually pay a lot of money for virtual, RARE goods or services! Once we've conluded that it's in the human nature to appreciate and love RARE things then I can get back to the main topic.
There are 7,6 billion (7.600.000.000) people on this planet according to this article . We can not estimate how much total money is in the entire world but I found another article which says there could be 1,2 quadrilion (1.200.000.000.000.000) USD out there in form or derivatives contracts.
Theory #1
Considering the above and the ipothethically that on average one person that holds bitcoin holds exactly 1 BTC, then we would have 1 Bitcoin at every 700 people.
Theory #2
If we divide the entire money there is in the world to the total ammount bitcoin that was not lost the price of 1 Bitcoin would actually be $120,000,000. That's actually crazy, right? I think this number can be realistic in the distant future JUST for the fact that bitcoin is the first method and coin's rarety.
These are just some small theories I was thinking about. Even if the whole market crashes ( which is impossible in my opinion ) then we would still see potential in Bitcoin as it's the first cryptocoin, it becomes more and more rare and it has already shown a part of its potential
At the moment I'm not holding any BTC, but I think that holding a Bitcoin for couple years or tens of years is a really good deal. Imagine that most of people don't even afford to buy a house in their entire life nowadays without lifetime credits which is pretty sad in my opinion.
Curently, most of my portofolio is in Nebulas (NAS) as I think it has a lot of potential both short and long term. Probably, in the future I will either buy 1 Bitcoin or move my positions from Nebulas to BTC.
Please share me your opinion on this, I really appreciate that you've been reading untill now! Also, if you liked it and you want to help me as I sacrificed studying to an exam and I might be dropping it, you can also retweet this so there would be more people who will be able to see it! I don't usually ask for these stuff!
Please note that the article above does not represent any sort of financial advice or counseling. Thank you for reading!
Nice train of thought you got there. In general, I agree, that Bitcoin has strong deflationary tendencies as well as other beneficial apsects that makes it a good long term hold in my eyes.
The limitation to 21'000'000 and growing demand as well as additional reduction of supply by Bitcoins getting lost are only a few of them. Reading your article, I'm curious to know, wheter or not it's possible that more than half of the supply can get lost.
If your assumption turns out to be true, this would have a rather beneficial impact on the value of a single coin. (up to the point where too many btc get lost I guess...) Furtheromre, I have some good news for you - to me it seems that you forgot some zeroes in the quadrillion:
One Quadrillion = 10^15 = 1'000'000'000'000'000.
If I do the calculation, I get the following result:
1 btc worth 120'000'000 USD
1'200'000'000'000'000 / 10'000'000 = 120'000'000
So... this sounds awesome and I like your idea, but it implies that all the money will once end up in bitcoin - which i consider to be highly unlikely.
What did convince you that this could be the case?
And maybe you can help me with the theory of 1 BTC at every 700 people? I see how you got the number, but I don't understand how this is relevant for the price.
Thanks!
It was just an assumption but there are a lot of news and I know a lot of people who lost bitoins in the past. As it was really easy to mine in the first period of Bitcoin there were a lot of people who mined and forgot about it probably as its price was around 0.2$ or stuff like that. Also , as I said this analysis is for 10-15 years from now. A lot of people will forget their adresses and some will die,unfortunately.
Thank you a lot for correcting me, I knew that was something odd in my calculations but I've didn't notice it as I wrote this article as a pause between my exam prep. I will edit it as soon as possible. That's also grea t news 120 mil $ for 1 BTC WOW
Well, it was just an assumption to see how big of a potential can bitcoin have at a large scale and if it will be mass adopted. Cryptocurrency will definetely become adopted, either if it will be descentralized or centralized. Bitcoin will be #1 and most rare coin out there so as I said in the article people love RARE stuff.
There was just a theory to see how much "unique" one guy can be by holding a bitcoin considering everyone who has Bitcoin has only 1 of it. It's not relevant to the price as it's relevant to give us a good perspective on how it's working. If we go outside and look for that unique wealthy person around us the chance can be around 1/700 haha
Thank you a lot for your comment, I want to build my community around people like you. Have a nice stay on steemit!
Good point with people loosing / forgeting bitcoins when the price was only 0.2$. I guess only time will tell. Until now I didn't give the thought a chance, that the amout of lost btc could be that huge. But thinking about it... with 10 - 15 years... it doesn't even sound crazy but rather possible.
You're welcome! Hehe, 120 mil BTC for the win! :D
I totally agree with your people love rare stuff claim. I kind of forgot to mention that. And thanks for explaining your thought behind the 1 in 700.
Thanks for your kind words, as you might see on my profile, I'm just getting started with steemit. I really like the concept and hope to have a long and interesting stay.
Good luck with your exams!
Cheers
This platform is great and I BET that you will have a nice journey here. I really like the way you write and your mentality, so if you'd want you can add me on facebook to keep in touch in the future.
Cheers!
Unfortunately, I've stopped using facebook for quite some time... I'll get back to you, in case I'll ever start using it on a regular basis again. Until then, lets keep in touch on steemit.
No worries mate. Was just a suggestion :D . We keep in touch here!
That's smart.
Thank you!
Buna:)
Incercam sa ne adunam toti romanii pe un grup de discord, unde intentionam sa dezvoltam tagul #promo-romania si sa crestem o comunitate frumoasa.
Hai si tu:)
https://discord.gg/sTfjCH
done !
That's a nice and interesting perspective! Nice article! :)