The world's first cryptocurrency has operated with nearly 100 percent uptime for almost 10 years now even though it has been declared dead more than 200 times.
Technically, Bitcoin will live as long as a handful of computers run the Bitcoin software on their network. Unless the community destroys itself because of greed or carelessness, Bitcoin will still be the top cryptocurrency in the coming years.
Let's look at 5 scenarios that can lead Bitcoin's path to irrelevance.
Armageddon | Almost zero likelihood | Sudden death
Bitcoin nodes wouldn't be able to contact each other if all sources of electricity, internet and data communications were shut across the planet. Even if hardcore fans or museums continue to run its software forever, bitcoin will never technically be extinct.Critical bug | Low likelihood | Sudden irrelevance
Only NASA is able to produce code with absolutely zero software defect. The bitcoin community is aware that any modification to the code can put the integrity of the system at risk. Thus, any modification to the code is peer-reviewed and tested.
Any update which contains a bug on the level of the infamous DAO project that was built on the Ethereum blockchain could put the system at risk.Forked to irrelevance | Low likelihood | Slow irrelevance
There's a possibility that Bitcoin may be forked multiple times if the community disagrees on the path forward or because of monetary reasons. Theoretically, several splits like the Bitcoin Cash split which happened last summer could happen in which the network is further fragmented and its power reduced.Joint government crackdown | Medium-to-low likelihood | Sudden irrelevance
Governments can control and restrict the use of Bitcoin in their jurisdiction but not destroy Bitcoin itself.
They can have the bank accounts of crypto companies closed and can forbid the creation of related businesses. Businesses can always move to friendlier jurisdictions like Singapore if only a handful of countries ban cryptocurrencies and the impact will be limited. A global ban on Bitcoin is almost impossible, even though one or more governments will go after it in all likelihood.Better cryptocurrency | Medium-to-low likelihood | Slow irrelevance
There's always the possibility that a better cryptocurrency, one that is more profitable to mine and also with lower transaction costs for the users will replace Bitcoin. This cryptocurrency would have to be much better to overcome the network effect and the brand value that Bitcoin has.
If the price of electricity went up significantly in the next few years, Bitcoin will have to find a way to lower the cost of security while maintaining the security of the ledger as mining could become unprofitbale.