Nothing to see here
That pretty much sums up the BTC market today and likely for the short term future. Pattern one mentioned yesterday (symmetrical triangle) busted... Pattern two ascending wedge; not busted yet, but most likely will if we close below $9200.
As I stated yesterday I'm sitting this one out as this it the time when people get hurt trying to play pick the bottom, buy in and only see it reverse against them taking some more capital with it. I have been checking the charts in all time frames and don't have anything of substance to report other than we are still in the midst of a moderately server correction.
The weekly has an MACD/Signal line cross to the downside and only one red bar thus far and we typically have 2 or more. Interpretation is that basing my assumptions on the historical patterns of BTC, we could keep playing the wounded animal slowly dying game till mid to late February.
As you cannot determine capitulation until it after the fact I doubt we are there yet as selling volume is not epic at the moment and belays hope by HODLers of a quick turn around.
We may still be in the denial phase to some extent. A good explanation can be found here:
Eventually the market tops out well below its previous high and starts a new downleg carrying it to lower lows. During this phase the fundamental news significantly worsens and investors realize that that a bear market is in force. This is the phase of concern. During this phase many investors sell, but others hang in, feeling that the bad news is discounted and that a bottom is near.
At this point the market may rally again as many observers feel that the decline has ended and that a new bull market has begun. This rally, also characterized by weak breadth and low volume, subsequently fails and heads down. --(hmmm, failed rally, heading down.. sounds vaguely familiar?--@pawsdog)
At this point the majority becomes exceedingly bearish and throws in the towel, fearful of further declines and the potential disappearance of their assets. This is the capitulation phase, when stocks are sold on fear and emotion rather than on rational analysis. It is at that point that the market is finally ready to make an important bottom.
And Here is a solid short answer to what they actually are:
Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp
So the question is how much pain can you take before throwing in the towel? If you are already out and sitting in cash then you have nothing to worry about.
Corrections by their very nature are designed to create such immeasurable financial pain that people finally throw in the towel. As we have yet to reach $8,000 there are still a ton of HODLers from the November 28th drop to that level hanging in there that have yet to feel any real pain and suffering. The previous major drop buy in was the $8000 to $5300 drop on Nov 12th, so those HODLers are likely hanging in there as well. If price continues to drop and HODLERS see profit margins approaching a loss expect many to finally give in and create a selling tidal wave, bringing us to new lows.
At current a lowest low of sub $6,000 at the height of this thing is not out of the question based upon longer time frame support levels.
Also a fail of the second pattern (ascending wedge) with a close below $9200 typically brings follow on losses that average an additional 10 percent decline which would begin to rattle the $8000 HODlers and force them to begin liquidation.
Lastly and the only chart of the day today...
This being a 30 minute chart and of no use other than to demonstrate a point.. Recoveries need 'Volume', real volume, solid interest and confidence. We had a drop to $10,176 and it turned around at that point (now at $10,600), but this is "Fools Gold".. Look at the volume..Buying volume on the turn failed to exceed selling volume of the session preceding it, was less than half of the two large sells earlier in the frame and is slowly beginning to taper off as confidence wains. Determination, nothing more than a stop gap on the way to another lower low. Likely result will be a failed rally at first resistance point of $11,200 or lower and a decline to a lower low than $10,176.
Interpreting Price and Volume Action
"Price action reflects investor sentiment. If a stock is rising, investors are eager to buy; if it is falling, investors are eager to sell. But for a move to be valid, the stock price action must be confirmed by volume. As technicians say, volume goes with the trend. Volume shows how much conviction investors have in a trend. When you multiply the number of shares traded by the current stock price, you get the total dollar amount that investors are willing to put at risk. Low volume means few investors are putting little money at risk. You cannot trust such price moves, as they are fickle and can easily reverse."
Indecision or Uncertainty
"When things are unclear many investors tend to stay on the sidelines and stop trading, so the volume dries up. But if some traders feel compelled to act out of boredom or to entice others to act, their trades can push prices up or down in a slow market. Other traders may act prematurely, hoping to be ahead of the crowd. But if others do not follow those moves, stocks can quickly return to their previous levels."
Manipulation
"It is easier to manipulate a stock when its volume is low. All a manipulator needs to do is execute a few carefully timed trades to create the illusion that a stock is moving so he can get others to buy or sell. The goal is to raise the price if he wants to sell and to lower the price if he wants to buy. If you are suckered in by such a move, your position can quickly turn into a loss as the stock you just bought suddenly reverses course on increased volume."
Source: https://finance.zacks.com/mean-stock-price-goes-up-down-little-volume-2497.html
Exercise caution and patience and just wait it out until the time is right to buy. I do hope that many of you used the highs of the most recent failed rally to move some Alts around or head for cash as it may be another bumpy ride down.
My Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-21-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-20-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-evening
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-19-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-18-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-16-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-15-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-14-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
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Comment by @killerwhale. This is a opt-in bot.
It can't be a rollercoaster ride all the time, people need a breather once in a while.
No roller coaster, just a downtrend.. it does the same thing in an uptrend it just always ends up higher.. same on the down.. ups and downs,, but the downs are lower...
quality posts, I really like and follow every post you, I hope you also can participate in my posting @pawsdog
Thanks I appreciate the kind words... :)
ok...
I'm very much in the 'wait it out' camp... we don't have any spare cash anyway with this Grand Canyon trip coming up; hiking boots and cameras have replaced Bitcoin and Alts in the budget.
What does this all mean for you though? If the crypto market cap has fallen in the last few days, where has that money gone... and whereever it has gone can you play with it there? Or do you take a break for a few days and come back to it?
For me? I sit in cash or I have a couple Alts that are artificially inflated I hide in.. NBT for example seems to be held at a dollar no matter what and is a good place to take shelter so far.. That may change but that is what stops are for.. Money has gone to FIAT of the smart traders and on the sidelines in many instances to wait it out.. For me.. when things are like this.. I hang out with my daughter, chill with the family.. de stress and catch up on the family stuff I neglect when I'm deep into a bull market... I'm obsessive when times are good and put off a lot of things that I should not.. As an aside you still did good on your ETH so that should of bought a new camera and the LTC on the 60 bump a couple weeks ago I hope.. :)
Ah nice. I wasn't sure if you still played the market and rode the short positive price actions or moved all your cash over to Forex or something or, like I was hoping, you took some days off and enjoyed family life... especially given some of those bull nights you probably didn't get a lot of sleep.
Unfortunately I wasn't quick enough on the LTC and it went back to the price I bought within a day or two... so I've chucked it in a hardware wallet with my alts and forgotten about it. I did cash out half the ETH I had when it went crazy, so that actually paid for a really nice lens that I should receive this week. Super excited about that.
I really am glad you get a bit of a break, and I'm also glad the market is a bit more normal now... all that crazy double digit rise of everything was making me nervous.
This is the great opportunity for those who missed the btc train . I think we will get lots of newhands if we hit near 8k !
Or 6k!
i hope not !
I do... that's another 25 percent profit the other direction...
I would be happy and at that point I would be more interested in BCH and perhaps a flippening...
Si es muy cierto que el bitcoin siga bajando, pero después de una gran bajada o de una gran corrección, viene una gran subida, tengamos paciencia, y confiemos que todo va a mejorar, mucho éxito.
No habla
Just in October 1 bitcoin was at 5500 so I think that's the extreme-low. However; I have a feeling that it won't go under 9 grand. I am mostly watching Ethereum though. Ethereum is favoring very well during all this if you ask me. I am mostly just sitting back myself.
We hope it does not but if the pattern busts it will and it will go much lower. The weekly is just getting started on a selling cycle and those can be quite brutal...
I am looking at the 30 min chart and I really can't see the super low-volume bar. Overall the daily volume will most likely exceed yesterdays on the day before's volume. Also I have noticed that "reversals" in BTC volume (daily) are lower compared to the usual reversal volume in stocks. Unless you were speaking for specifically the 30 min bars. I agree with you, I am in cash position and feeling great!
https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/30m On daily volume you may be right but a crypto reversal goes down down down, high volume, hammer, then a high volume up on the hourly or 30 that exceeds or matches seller volume then good.. an anemic stop is not a reversal...
that is the daily from the temp reversal at $9200 solid buyer volume to match seller volume but still less than the selling session two weeks before.. gonna take a bit of time.. but this below average volume we are having now is not recovery inspiring... :)
Ok, thank you for the feedback, I will keep that in mind. BTC has bounced off 10,350$ support on 15/30 min chart 4-5 times now.
You were saying?...;)
Tough times right now..easy to not be patient, to begin caring about the hourly chart etc.. Don't.. big picture, always the big picture...
Old school rule.. "volume precedes price."
“Price will not rise unless demand exceeds supply. Demand is measured in volume and thus volume must always precede price.”
Got any more great articles for me to read.. I liked the last one a lot..
Yes, yes I know I said that but forgot to add that it will break, if more volume come in. Well it came :) Which is the last you read, the BTC recap ?
Fortunately I still sit on cash, I did not do anything crypto-related today. Just watching and looking for something that I've seen before.
Same here.. I like you.. I think you are a good dude.. So lets play a game.. .1 SBD bet? what do you think the bottom will be.. closest one gets .1 SBD.. what do you think..? Maybe I could make a post and just give the proceed to someone, but that sounds kinda below my content.. I'm all in cash too.. just waiting to see what happens... So many people getting killed right now... I'm sure playing pick the bottom.. :)... Have an upvote..
Game on ! Give me the rules, who goes first ? Upvoted back - GOOD INFO BRO
very informative, thanks:)
Please check steemit chat sir I got something for you there.
On it.. Not Sir anymore, I left the USMC some time ago.. My name is Rick in real life..
haha, very well then. Thanks for your service.