I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Preparing to enter short, lined out four confirmations for entering / sidelines
Patterns: descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: $6,940 support appears to be breaking down and turning into resistance. Next support = $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Has almost fully retraced while the price of Bitcoin has barely budged.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): +0.67% | bullish crossover did not amount to anything
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 MA = -1% & back on top of price | 128 = -5.56%
Volume: Has not exceeded MA throughout this squeeze.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509
Candlestick analysis: 2 hanging men
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily and 12h cloud held as resistance. 12h cloud breakdown could provide an entry.
TD Sequential: G9 < G6, G7, & G8. If > then would be perfected. When 9 is lower than 7 then it will often lead to a new countdown to the upside.
Visible Range: Low volume node at $7,200 tells seems like a good spot for one last short squeeze.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -1% | 24h = +0.87% | 1w = +3.53% | 2w = +8.26% | 1m = -15.45%
Bollinger Bands: Weekly MA = $7,379 and should be strong resistance | Daily MA = $6,589 and is expected to get retested after pulling back from top band.
Trendline: Connected August 22nd to August 26th and it was violated yesterday
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: DOWN = $6,212 | UP = $8,312
On Balance Volume: Weekly just created a higher high for a bull div
ADX: ADX is at a major level of support which indicates that major volatility is on the horizon
Chaikin Money Flow: Will it get rejected at 0.05 or provide a buy signal?
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.73 | D = 50.30 | weekly crossing + CMF breaking through 0.05 would be significant
Stoch: Pulling back on daily, plenty of room to go on 3d
Summary: We got the 9 that I've been waiting for but it doesn't do much for us when it is less than the 6, 7 and 8. In that circumstance a new setup to the upside is more likely than a correction. Will continue to wait patiently for one last squeeze to $7,200. That would put us at a major resistance cluster which would provide a great selling opportunity. If that happens then I would expect it to occur in the next 12-24 hours. CBOE options will get covered today and after that demand is satisfied I expect a breakdown to follow over the holiday weekend. If the price of Bitcoin’ is > $6,000 on Tuesday then I will be very surprised.
“Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes” -Col William Prescott
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Learn How to Trade! [part 1]
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Wyckoff Distribution
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 184)
Below $6K by Tuesday is certainly possible. BTC is always volatile after futures expire. If price doesn’t clear $7,200 in the next 24 hours, it may very well collapse.
That's what I'm seeing. Shorts are back down where they would need to be for another sell off and the resistance from $7,200 - $8,000 is about as strong as it gets.