Where to begin? This is certainly interesting, yet something I believe we all should have anticipated. I want to make a few points, and bear with me if this is a little chaotic.
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Perspective
November 1st 2017, the entire crypto market had risen to $199 billion. I remember I felt like a king. A month later it was $325 billion and it felt unreal. Then we had a dip down to $440 during christmas, then we almost doubled and topped off at $830 billion January 7th. So in about two months or so we've gone from where we are now, to 600 billion, down to 400 again, up to 850 billion and then down to where we are now.
Also, keep in mind we've dropped like this in January/February the past 3 years. Although not quite as hard as this. Last year we went down 34%. The year before 50%.
Now we are down more than 50%.
But remember, once again, that we've gone up just so much more in 2017 than any years before. From a market cap of 17 billion January 1st 2017 to a peak of 850 billion. That's 50x or 5000% increase in one year. That's pretty insane for a whole market. It is not the illuminati manipulating this shit - it just got overbought and overhyped too quickly. The technology didn't follow the expectations to a certain degree, but mostly it's due to other factors:
- Very young and inexperienced investors (average age 25-ish)
- Disruptive technology. Media, banks and governments fighting against it
- The year of mass adoption
2017 was the year of mass adoption
Like it or not, 2017 was THE year for Cryptos. If you got in early 2017 or even earlier your are still up massive amounts. Sure, it's not fun to watch half your investment gone (on paper) but in my case, I'm still up 350% for the year which is massive. I honestly didn't expect to be up 1000% per year. And what a year 2017 was. If it wasn't for my mother dying, it would have been the best year ever. Glad cryptos helped balance things out for me at least!
Now, the hard part remains. How are you hodling on? Are you losing hope? Are you forgetting the technology?
So, even if 2017 was the year of mass adoption, what does that really mean? Did everyone take up a second mortgage and jump from a bridge last week? No. A few people did that. In a world with 7,5 billion people. Media overhypes things. That's how they get readers.
In a recent survey done in Norway, which I wrote about yesterday almost 5% of all norwegians own cryptos. I don't believe those numbers are exact. Maybe 2% is more likely. But still. It's not that rare anymore. In South Korea an estimated 30% owns cryptos. That's big.
So make no mistake. If you invest $5000 dollars into cryptos even at todays price, you probably will never see those 5 grand turn unto a million. The threshold of making huge gains has increased.
Still not comparable to the magnitude of the tech bubble
I've argued before that in order for it to be a bubble in the same magnitude as the tech bubble of 2000 adjusted for money supply etc, we need the total market cap of cryptos to be somewhere around $7-10 trillion. So at $800 billion we were only 1/10 of that. When the tech bubble bursted it was 10% of the total world stock market in value. Cryptos need to be at approx $8 trillion.
So this peak at $800 is IMO temporarily. It is a correction. Seasonal or not - we will se much higher prices. This is a great buying opportunity.
But do keep in mind, and please be realistic about this. If you buy now, you can expect a 20x return the next two years. (If you time the market perfectly) And make no mistake, I believe we will see more corrections like this, and perhaps a huge blow off at 7-10$ trillion mcap. That's where I am going to take some profits. 20x these levels. That's when you take out some profits to pay off the mortgage or buy an appartment that you can rent out etc.
And then you keep hodling. Because after that, we all know what happens. Sure, the tech bubble burst in 2000..but where are tech stocks now? Exactly. About 100% higher. And that's your pension.
Not over yet
I don't think we've done correcting just yet though. If $400 billion doesn't hold, we could be looking at 200. And that's a real buying opportunity. I'll consider moving in a lot of Fiat if we hit those numbers. I doubt it though, so right now I'm just hodling. If you bought in at higher levels, I'd start considering to buy soon. But again, don't try to catch a falling knife either. Do your own due diligence.
Oh, and don't commit suicide or get so stressed out that you get a stroke. It's only money. It's investing. It's fun. One day you're rich, one day you're poor. Who gives a shit. Do some yoga, go for run. Hell, if we go down to 100 billion I'll sell my Tesla and buy a horse and carriage so that I can buy more cryptos. I will however not eat my own dick like Mcafee :)
dont worry crypto will be multi T market
I think 2017 was the year of mass attention and hype and 2018 will be the year of mass adoption. Prices are tanking but the fundamentals are extremely good. Tech get improved a lot (Lightning Network, Schnor signatures, MAST, RSK) and mainstream platforms will start with BTC / crypto (Robinhood, Samsung, Line, Square).
High value transactions start to be done in BTC (Transfer soccer player, property, ship cargo) and the first big banks, governments and more and more hedge funds will enter the market.
Almost all of this is news that came out during the bear market. This divergence between price action and fundamentals is a HUGE buy signal. It could go lower than this, but long term it will certainly rocket! Accumulation / dollar average from now is the way to go, buy when blood is in the streets.
True words! And a good addition. Thanks!
Thanks for the uplifting post. It's what I needed right now.
I think a key in the crypto market is to put in money you can afford to loose and that wouldnt hurt you too much if you lost it, this is going to make it much easier to get through periods like this. If you are over extended in crypto you will have a hard time to sleep.
the day is always darkest before dawn, but that is the perfect time to buy, when everyone is giving away their crypto for a good price
Yes. Exactly. A lot of people put in more than they could afford to lose, plus they expected too much profits too fast. You will not become a millionaire with 1000$.
I put in a lot in cryptos, but I did the research and knew that the market was grossly undervalued when I did. I did the math and calculated how many owned, the mcap compare to stock market, the implications the tech would have etc. I had never imagined to see it at 800 billion this early.
I will not start to bleed until mcap $100 billion. So even though I can get a slight headache from this, no jumping from bridge nor stroke :)
Haha and more importantly like you say no eating your own dick lol . Jumping in when the hype is the biggest is never good
Yup. Rule number one of crypto. Don't say eat own dick.
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This and it matters when you want to cash in your gains or cut your losses. If you have a short-term investment strategy the drop is super-scary and if you're over extended in crypto you've done it wrong. If you think long-term a drop like this is disheartening, but nothing to lose sleep over. It's a very volatile asset and crashes and bubbles are practically guaranteed. If you don't need the money tomorrow, hold it or even buy when it's low like now.
Exactly, it puts you in the right position to make even further gains. Patience is key 🔑
Very good update report. Cryptocurrency is down and upset now. Need your support. What can we do. Keep sharing
It seems like all hope is going down each day due to the sudden fall in the cryto market. I strongly believe that it will bounce back because even in other businesses, there are period when maximum profit Is made and also there are bad moments also. I solidly believe that cryto market is the best any where in the world.
I loved the last paragraph. Not that I did not like the above content.
Currently I'm like
when everyone says that the right time to sell cryptocurrency is just the right time to buy cryptocurrency.....
that's it
@scandinavianlife
Hahaha, lol this is indeed my thoughts on crypto. well said. if you remove the nov and dec spike and just take the trajectory from before the craziness skipping over November December and part of Jan we see that it is still going up in the bigger scheme of things, so hold onto your panties, we are not in Kansas anymore. just hodl and buy if you have the cash to do so.
great post, stay blessed.
Thanks for good input friend ! Well said. Odin give you strength.
I guess McAfee won´t get fed eating such a tiny sausage. 😀Thank you for your very down to earth view. I´m still thinking, that there is not much room for pure currency coins, and coins/projects with real life value (e.g. blockchains like Steem and EOS) will most likely succeed, while the "currency" coins will die.
Haha. Yeah, I'm trying to avoid the currency coins as well. I only have bitcoin and litecoin really. And maybe Vcash or something.
It's a valuable information.thanks for sharing.keep it up.people will be benefit to knowing this information.go ahead
Thanks for this crypto news update providing..... i appreciate this bitcoin....
outstanding parformance sir for bitcoin thanks for update @scandinavianlife
This what i was thinking.Now some magic needs to solve the problem.People needs to believe in crypro unless it will be a bigger disaster.@upvoted
I wish the SBD to go up soon, at least to 6 USD.
Don't count on it. I'm ready to buy SBD at 1$
i think a When breaking B because it is strong support and if the model fails the price rebounds from them.
Bottom line:
Price control on the 4-hour friday ..
Simply (the highest price support buy buy-down download down the support selling the decoction)
and do all this on the friday only 4 hours
Top support = buy
bottom support = sell
If price break The last support will be downloaded to the 6000
7000
areas in case the price will go back to 13000
Watching the #cryptomarket bleeding. #Pray for #cryptocurrency. #BTC #TRX #XVG #XRP #XLM #ADA
in my opinion the best strategy is hodl.buy when is cheap and forget it.
Excellent thinking and well written @scandinavianlife. But here is one thing I disagree with:
I honestly believe that even $500 invested today, will turn into many millions within 10 years time.
That's over 1000x return in 5 years. Meaning you believe the mcap will be 4000 trillion, or 4 quadrillion. Thats over 60 times more money than there is on earth :)
All steemit member should be sintiture cryptocurrency.
To much for the FUD and I dont want to add it up. In my opinion 2018 is the wake of mass adoption where the end of early adapter stage. The market we see is artifficially initiated by some group in preparation of mass adoption.