In general I agree with what you have put forth here....however....there is no guarantee than ANY coin will rise or fall any specific amount. The only guarantee in place for the fork is the guarantee that if you are holding BTC you will receive free money in B2X.
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Even that isn't a guarantee, more and more parties are withdrawing support of B2X. But yes, most likely you will get free B2X. Truth be told, I wish I wasn't on this altcoin train atm because with all the uncertainty I'd love to be on both the BTC and B2X train just in case. But that aside, I still think there's a very big chance the bull run will end before the fork, not after. I think the peak will be before the fork, not on the fork.
Support will be there. Remember how LITTLE support BTG had? Yet, it happened, free money was given out, and all those who said they wouldn't support it are now back peddling and preparing to exchange it.
Well, we'll see in about two weeks what will happen. I've been wrong before, but my money is on altcoins rising and Bitcoin bull run ending a couple days before the fork.
Amen to that....it's all speculation...this market is still in it's infancy. And to be completely transparent on my stance, I will hold alt coins and btc during the fork....never all in one spot anyway!