Most people don't want to hear what I have to say about the crypto market. And that's fine. I am not interested in telling comfortable lies. I just try to offer my honest perspective on things, and let people make their own decisions. I try to respect everybody's opinions when it comes to investing, because there isn't one right way to approach it. I've learned from traders with all different styles and strategies.
This has been a rough year for crypto so far, but I don't think that the market is dying. It is still a trader's market full of opportunity. There are a lot of people who believe we will see a bull run again towards the end of this year. But with the exception of a couple of coins like BNB, the whole market is still locked in a technical downtrend/bear market, and every market rally we've had this year stopped shorter than the last.
This does not bode well for the long-term investor waiting on the bull run, especially if they bought in at much higher levels than where we are currently. This market could grind down a lot deeper still. If you don't believe that's possible, then I think you're letting your emotions cloud your judgment. We could be looking at an extended bear market well into 2019. If you look at the all-time chart on Bitcoin, it tells you all you need to know. It just came out of a 2 year bull-run from 2015-2017, so a prolonged bear market is a perfectly healthy response to that.
Facts:
The trade volume has steadily declined all year. If you look at the google analytics on crypto searches, they have also steadily declined all year. There is still very little real world demand for cryptocurrency. Aside from Ripple, Steem, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a very small handful of other projects, none of these blockchain protocols are being used or adopted by thousands of people every day, let alone millions or tens of millions of users. Without mass adoption, this technology and the coins built around it constitute little more than a speculative trader's market. And mass adoption seems unlikely anytime soon when the majority of the world still doesn't even know what Bitcoin is.
Conclusion:
Cryptocurrency is still the riskiest investment class on the planet. This post is mainly for investors, not traders. Traders will find a way to make money in any market. Wherever there's a free market, there's opportunity. And cryptocurrency offers some of the best trading opportunities, despite the high risk for investors. As an investor in cryptocurrency, I have seen nothing but steady losses all year. As a trader, I have made some small, but steady gains. The better I have gotten at trading, the better those gains have become. Take away from this what you will.
I am still a long term believer and investor in the Steemit platform, but Steem is my only long term holding now. The rest of my portfolio is in my trading account on Binance, and I am constantly trading things back and forth on there. I am an aggressive swing trader, and this is the perfect market to suit my trading style, with its high volatility, low trading fees, and the ability to control all of my trades easily every day in real time. If the volume/interest begins to pick up in the crypto market again, and it looks like there's potential for another extended bull run, then I will start taking long positions in other projects like ADA and XLM. But for now I am just a trader, and a Steemit blogger / investor.
NOTE: This is not investment advice. Everything written here is for educational or entertainment purposes only. Always do your own research before you invest, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
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~ Seldons Plan
Writer | Trader | Traveler | Father of 5
Like you I had sell all my crypto holdings long before. The only crypto left was my steem that you have seen in these account. However, I am also afraid that one day all of my current holdings will gone.
Why are you worried about Steem? It isn’t going anywhere, man! Too many people love this platform, and it’s way too good, for it to ever die.
i take my steem/ sbd and trade with it on binance like you.
I might do that one day if I ever build my account to the point that I’m bringing in good rewards with it every week. Right now I’m only bringing in a few dollars a week so it’s not worth it to me to send it to the exchange.
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STOPTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!
The crypto market is full of cheer leaders and folks who have a bit to learn about markets. The best way to learn fast is to approach markets with skepticism because most of what is written even by so called experts is wrong, a lot wrong. I've learned this the hard way over the years. Keep questioning everything. Make good planned out trades with as little risk as possible and you will do well.
Good advice. I find the hard part for me is maintaining the discipline to control my position sizes with my entries. I am going to write a post about that soon. I think its ok to take a high risk trade here and there as long as you’re only risking a small fraction of your portfolio size. For me, I only have $850 in my trading account, so I should probably only put about $20 in if it’s a high risk trade. This is a mistake a lot of new traders make. They see an opportunity and they might even be right about it, and they go all in on it. Maybe they win a couple of trades like that, and they start to feel unstoppable and go all in on the wrong one, and bam, they’ve just lost half their portfolio.
Interesting post and nice chart – makes a change to Tradingview and really captures price growth without the log scale.
Thanks for the head's up on BNB. It wasn't on my radar but it is now!
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