I am a fan of Bitcoin, Altcoins and the big daddy of it all, the underlying technology ‘Blockchain’.
I HODL, buy and sell these cryptos (circa 2012) and can see Blockchain transforming industries, creating new opportunities for the entrepreneurial and those with a passion for the frontier spirit.
However, we must understand Bitcoin, and its derivatives are akin to a young and aggressive animal, let loose in an unregulated and widely known manipulated jungle.
When I hear John McAfee who is paid more than $100,000 per tweet (to 224,000 followers) Source making claims that Bitcoin will reach $1Millon by 2020 and that he will eat his own d!£K if it does not Source, it makes me question his motives for doing so in the first place.
His predictive analysis was supposed to be based on some super secret spy technology using quantitative and qualitative analysis. But in reality, predicting anything for $100,000+ (Altcoins and ICO success included) which seems to be based more on personal (gain) and sponsored motivations can be pulled out of a hat. This demonstrates that he holds 'Low Protected Values' and should have anyone with one bit of sense take his 'analysis' with a pinch of salt. Furthermore, it stinks of blatant market manipulation, and he is contributing to overvaluation of cryptocurrencies and encouraging empty pump schemes.
The question is should we be concerned about market manipulation by such well-known celebrities? Well, the answer is a resounding yes when we consider the sheer lack of otherwise trusted advisers in this industry. Especially when we have those with financial expertise and years of experience behind them such as Warren Buffett having their opinions dismissed by the cryptocurrency media just because he speaks openly and honestly and does not promise to eat his 'nether regions' to back up his claims. As to whether actions like McAfee’s paid Tweet promotions are helping or hurting cryptocurrency, it amounts to this: actions that are purposefully done to manipulate markets (i.e. falsely influencing investors to buy an asset at a specified price) are negative for industries. It can lead to assets being incorrectly valued and in the long run lead to negative sentiment among investors. Also, for those new to this unregulated and very young market, armed with very little research and looking to invest, this type of manipulation can be at best be very confusing and may discourage market participation.
As I mentioned earlier, I HODL, buy and sell cryptos. I love them. However, even I agree with Mr Buffett that this is by no means a form of investment Source. If we are all honest with ourselves, we know and invest blindly in this marketplace as Vitalik Buterin said “There’s projects that never had a soul, that are just like, ra-ra, price go up. Lambo, vrromm, buybuybuy now!” Source. I.e. it is all about 'hoping' that a cryptocurrency, as they say, will go to the ‘Moon’ and we will be sitting on a beach somewhere sipping champagne with a Ferrari and a mansion with a helipad.
We know deep in our hearts that Warren Buffett is right and that a Bitcoins fair price cannot be genuinely valued at this point in time. There are no ratios or valuation tools for something that is as young as my nephew who is running around the schoolyard right now! Or for something that really just caught the world's attention a year ago!
Couple that with the use of Trading Bots (used in a coordinated manner) which are known to manipulate the price of a crypto up to 400% per annum Source and the speed at which information travels (genuine, sponsored and fake) through crypto outlets and social media, then how are we supposed to ever in an unregulated market ever hope to expect genuine price discovery for these assets?
Finally, cryptocurrencies were meant to free us from command and control from the global financial establishment. However, with the introduction of Bitcoin Futures through CBOE and CME and the cry for ETF's, are we not welcoming the very establishment we were supposed to have freedom from? I do find it hypocritical that we expect liquidity from these institutions so that the price of Bitcoin can 'Moon'. However, we forget that people like Warren Buffett understand these very same markets, was forged and made $Billions from them. But we dismiss his views without further review, research or education just because it goes against our expectations.
However, when an individual such as John McAfee who promises to eat his own d!£K for a possibly sponsored prediction, supposedly has a history of paranoia, drug use/distribution and being an erratic personality, we all want to buy his story and listen to him….. Source Source Souce!
So you have read through my thoughts and are wondering.....'Hey isn't there a Story about a Sultan and his Flying Horse' in the title?
Well yes, my Compadres and I regale you with this tale to relate the promises of McAfee and time horizons..... Hope you get the message:
"The Sultan [of Persia] had sentenced two men to death.
One of them, knowing how much the sultan loved his stallion, offered to teach the horse to fly within a year in return for his life. The Sultan, fancying himself as the rider of the only flying horse in the world, agreed.
The other prisoner looked at his friend in disbelief. “You know horses don't fly. What made you come up with a crazy idea like that You're only postponing the inevitable.”
“Not so,” said the [first prisoner]. “I have actually given myself four chances for freedom.
First, the Sultan might die during the year.
Second, I might die.
Third, the horse might die.
And fourth ... I might teach the horse to fly!”
-The Craft of Power. R.G. H. Siu, 1979
Source
McAfee our role model :-D
He either does not understand what blockchain technology means for mankind, or he has selfish motives for hating on crypto.
I think it may be both. He is holding stocks that are currently worth billions of dollars. But if the dollar collapses because some crypto replaces it, he might loose 80% of his wealth before he realises and reacts accordingly.
Fiat money only has any worth as long as people believe in it. The intrinsic value is ZERO. Same with most cryptos, but not STEEM. STEEM has a whole ecosystem using and depending on it. That alone means there is intrinsic value in STEEM.
Fiat can be replaced anytime, but STEEM cannot.
@ew-and-patterns
I agree with your point that everyone has personal motives behind the things they say they or do, or alternatively, they do not understand the concept (or pretend not to!). As for their motives, I cannot comment without further information as to why without my own bias coming into play.
I am interested in your opinion when say the Dollar collapses as you put it what will happen to the value of the stocks? Will the Governments replace them with the new Cryptocurrency so that the organisations do not go under also? Therefore his wealth would, in reality, be replaced by an equal 'value' of Crypto for the new economy, and he would not have lost his accumulated wealth in the real sense. Surely we would have just moved from one Capitalist system to another (Crypto-Capitalist) system.
I would also be interested in how Fiat can be replaced anytime- would we not need to take into account the transition of the systems we have in place, for example, the taxes we pay and the debts we owe in Fiat? How would this work?
Many thanks for your input.
Cheers,
@shenobie
"Therefore his wealth would, in reality, be replaced by an equal 'value' of Crypto for the new economy"
That is likely wrong, because it would cause all (non crypto) markets to crash lets say 50% at least. It will create a lot of FUD and destroy wealth everywhere.
Remember when the EURO was created? They promised everyone would be better off, when in reality prices doubled and our money in the bank was cut in half. This was in fact a haircut by 75%. Everyone lost 75% of what they had before. No joke. And most people did not even realise this truth. They thought they lost only 50% but prices doubled within a month.
Whenever there is a transition in payment methods, people loose a lot of money by design. That's one big and easy way to steal from the many.
What I mean by fiat can be replaced anytime is, that if people loose trust in a currency and it gets literally worthless like we are seeing in venezuela, they will, after a short period of suffering, just try to introduce a new fiat currency that they can issue and control.
But this time will be different. Experts think that people will not accept another fiat currency. It would have to at least be backed by gold. Even a government issued currency might not satisfy the plebs this time. That's why cryptos are actually fighting for the next reserve currency status. It will not be bitcoin, because it is slow and expensive. But one of the fast, zero transaction cost currencies might be fit for this.
I think they would just issue interim arrangements for taxes and offer some fixed exchange rates for fiat debt.
Cheers,
@ew-and-patterns
@ew-and-patterns
Thank you for your interesting views and input.
Cheers,
@shenobie
@ew-and-patterns -Bud, I don't think you correctly understood his question....... your response is a bit schizophrenic and very defensive tbh!
Interesting read although it could use some editing. Despite big names in various industries saying yay or nay to good old BTC, it appears to be trucking along just fine. The violent fluctuations aside, we can see a steady upward trend in value and use. And there is literally no reason I can think of why that wouldn’t continue.
Of course, there is no substitute for the cumulative effect of market forces and reactions over time so it’s probably best to err on the side of caution with BTC and other cryptos. Things are happening so fast in so many places and in so many ways and it’s all really only in its infancy.
It’s interesting to ponder on how things will look in another 3 to 5 years.
Hey @technoguy
You make some excellent points!
I noticed you have repeated the response a few times- I know sometimes our responses don't go through or via glitch get repeated.
You mention editing- I am a newbie to Steemit and would love your input on where I could improve this area for future posts.
Anyway I have just made another post before spotting this feedback- take a look and let me know your thoughts. It would be much appreciated.:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@shenobie/hypocrisy-in-the-cryptocurrency-universe-and-why-the-financial-industry-is-loves-it
Cheers,
Shenobie
That was quality right there, pure class!
@rubix
Your feedback is gold for motivation! Thank you :-D
@shenobie
I like very much this post and your toughts, i do guess this people is going in the market to be part of that and crash it hard once they want. So i agree totally with you and i use a safely money management to keep my fiat money safe. And i hodl some but just some. I do like more to sell and buy to profit this iper mega volatile market.
Cause when powers like Goldman Sachs ( Circle bought poloniex for 400 milion $ ) and Rockfeller or Rotschild join this market afferming it in public. I do have really fear to hodl just thinking "oooo it will moon hard" i really like more to see the charts. And in mean of charts i see a good bullish divergence (rsi) on weekly timeframe and i guess it will go making a good run but if something change i will be the first to go totally out and short it. I love the idea of what crypto should be rapresenting. I dont like what they are rapresenting in fact except for some cyberpunks and early adopters that use it for real purchases enjoying privacy and no limits on deposit/withdraw.
@pablohermano
You make some really good points!
Thank you for taking the time to feedback and discuss your views.
Cheers,
@shenobie
Interesting post with some good points. Whales and celebrities are definitely a huge unpredictable factor in crypto, for good or for ill. You have some talent writing! You might want to check out my post where you might be able to get some bank for your ink!
https://steemit.com/coincentral/@apprenticecrypto/get-paid-to-write-about-crypto-doug-polk-says-yessir
Hi @apprenticecrypto
I appreciate your compliment on my writing- it makes writing these posts worthwhile. I am going to take a look at your post now and see if I can bank my ink!
I do agree with an important point you made, that whales and celebrities are a huge unpredictable factor. More importantly I like the fact that you have highlighted that they can be an agent for good also.
I admire the pioneers of the crypto community who have tirelessly and selflessly devoted themselves to developing this new disruptive technology and classifying them all as utility maximising, profit-hungry 'Lambo' chasers would be a gross misrepresentation lol!!!
Thank you for your feedback. It is greatly valued.
Cheers,
@shenobie
Loved The Article Man, you some valid, well written arguments here I can dig it. My deal with Warren is just that he is going over board with some things he has said about Bitcoin. I don't think he has appreciation yet or respect for Blockchain at this point, it really will change the world for the better starting with Venezuela. Our currencies are being over printed causing hyperinflation along with the banks continuing to take financial freedom away from the world creating a millions of debt slaves by the day. Just feel Bitcoin/Blockchain technology is here to get rid of these corrupted Financial institutions and give more power to the people and a way to survive with a much more innovative system that should work much better. This argument can go on for days however I just wanted to show some love. Great work here! =]
Hi @thomasgutierrez
I totally agree with you! The blockchain is a disruptive tech and is here to change industries in ways in which we cannot imagine. Ways in which we understand organisations possibly!
Your point about Venezuela and Hyperinflation is an important one, and I do agree that cryptos can provide a means to stabilise or at least bring sanity to an economy gone haywire. Especially when conventional and unconventional means of controlling the economy are not working.
I appreciate the time you have taken to write back and thank you for your input.
Cheers,
@shenobie
Haha loved the story. Good points in the post......
Great story that express how a middle class people survive in between the billionaires or powers, some how money does the matter ,however money is not everything.
Hi @jyoti-thelight
I am glad you appreciated the overall piece, and I agree that money is just a small cog in the complex machine that is life.
I was more interested in highlighting the tale of the Sultan (to reciprocate for your brilliant original story)as it is just one of my favourites as a standalone (I always found it funny and insightful!).
I look forward to reading more of your work shortly.
Cheers,
@shenobie
Well, you elaborated the complete picture in this article.
@meaamir
Thank you! It is what I set out to achieve. Glad to see the analysis has been not off the mark.
@shenobie
interesting man
@umex
Glad you found it interesting. Always good to hear from you!
Cheers,
@shenobie
Thank you for your feedback. Yes, I accidentally posted my response a few times and in the wrong place. :-) Still getting used to this app! Great community, though.
As for editing, a quick shortcut is to just open up MS word and paste your post into it. It’s not fool proof but it will give you some good corrections. I usually do that before publishing my blog posts. I’m always surprised by how many spelling mistakes and run on sentences I find. It’s great to get the material down first and go back over it.
I like what I can pick up on about your attitude and perso drive in your writing. Your core ideas are awesome!
Hey @technoguy!
Thank you for getting back to me and an awesome tip!
I also appreciate your kind words on my writing, ideas and attitude- a great motivator to keep me going.
Stay cool and keep 'Steemin'-I think that's what they say on here 😄
No problem, man. It's hard to get a good piece out in a reasonable timeframe. Our minds move so much faster than our hands. Writing is a comparatively slow way to get ideas out but so well proven and transferable. I've got 3 kids and an offline business to keep happy but simply love the online world of blogging and crypto I've gotten myself into. ;-) There's never enough time to do all we want to do. Well, at least not for most of us!
Here's a link to my newest post:
https://steemit.com/fiatvscrypto/@technoguy/crypto-currency-vs-fiat-currency-what-s-the-big-difference
If you have time to read it (it's a bit on the long side) please let me know your thoughts. I linked a YouTube video to it so you can always listen instead of watch. Anyways, thanks for your support and I wish you the best here on Steemit and in life in general.
Interesting read although it could use some editing. Despite big names in various industries saying yay or nay to good old BTC, it appears to be trucking along just fine. The violent fluctuations aside, we can see a steady upward trend in value and use. And there is literally no reason I can think of why that wouldn’t continue.
Of course, there is no substitute for the cumulative effect of market forces and reactions over time so it’s probably best to err on the side of caution with BTC and other cryptos. Things are happening so fast in so many places and in so many ways and it’s all really only in its infancy.
It’s interesting to ponder on how things will look in another 3 to 5 years.
Hey @technoguy
You make some excellent points!
I noticed you have repeated the response a few times- I know sometimes our responses don't go through or via glitch get repeated.
You mention editing- I am a newbie to Steemit and would love your input on where I could improve this area for future posts.
Anyway I have just made another post before spotting this feedback- take a look and let me know your thoughts. It would be much appreciated.:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@shenobie/hypocrisy-in-the-cryptocurrency-universe-and-why-the-financial-industry-is-loves-it
Cheers,
Shenobie
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STOPInteresting read although it could use some editing. Despite big names in various industries saying yay or nay to good old BTC, it appears to be trucking along just fine. The violent fluctuations aside, we can see a steady upward trend in value and use. And there is literally no reason I can think of why that wouldn’t continue.
Of course, there is no substitute for the cumulative effect of market forces and reactions over time so it’s probably best to err on the side of caution with BTC and other cryptos. Things are happening so fast in so many places and in so many ways and it’s all really only in its infancy.
It’s interesting to ponder on how things will look in another 3 to 5 years.
Hey @technoguy
You make some excellent points!
I noticed you have repeated the response a few times- I know sometimes our responses don't go through or via glitch get repeated.
You mention editing- I am a newbie to Steemit and would love your input on where I could improve this area for future posts.
Anyway I have just made another post before spotting this feedback- take a look and let me know your thoughts. It would be much appreciated.:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@shenobie/hypocrisy-in-the-cryptocurrency-universe-and-why-the-financial-industry-is-loves-it
Cheers,
Shenobie
Interesting read although it could use some editing. Despite big names in various industries saying yay or nay to good old BTC, it appears to be trucking along just fine. The violent fluctuations aside, we can see a steady upward trend in value and use. And there is literally no reason I can think of why that wouldn’t continue.
Of course, there is no substitute for the cumulative effect of market forces and reactions over time so it’s probably best to err on the side of caution with BTC and other cryptos. Things are happening so fast in so many places and in so many ways and it’s all really only in its infancy.
It’s interesting to ponder on how things will look in another 3 to 5 years.
Hey @technoguy
You make some excellent points!
I noticed you have repeated the response a few times- I know sometimes our responses don't go through or via glitch get repeated.
You mention editing- I am a newbie to Steemit and would love your input on where I could improve this area for future posts.
Anyway I have just made another post before spotting this feedback- take a look and let me know your thoughts. It would be much appreciated.:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@shenobie/hypocrisy-in-the-cryptocurrency-universe-and-why-the-financial-industry-is-loves-it
Cheers,
Shenobie
Who has the most to lose, when Bitcoin becomes $1 Mil and more desired than the USD? Warren Buffet. Follow the money.
I beleive Bitcoin is a great store of value. Is this a bubble? Yes, and it'll pop; but thus far, it's the least widely held bubble I've ever seen; so we have much more to go. Can Cryptosphere reach 500 Trillion dollars market cap? YES!
Hi @haejin,
I appreciate you getting back to me.
You actually make a point that I wanted to include in the post but decided not to.
You mention Bitcoin and the USD in the same sentence. If we removed Bitcoin from its pegged value against Fiat Currencies (i.e. $, £, €, ¥ etc.), then what would the crypto economy look like?
The question I guess is and the point Warren Buffett is possibly making- is the participation in the Bitcoin and crypto economy in general purely to do with the fact that it appreciates in say $ terms through the hype generated by influencers, media (etc.) and the subsequent speculation surrounding it and nothing to do with any real fundamentals that we can measure?
A simple question: how many people do you think will participate in this market if they could not make a profit in say $ terms, that is cash out in Fiat currencies at some point?
So going back to your first sentence: "Who has the most to lose, when Bitcoin becomes $1 Million and more desired than the USD?":
I am not sure how to answer that because the value of Bitcoin will be dependent on the USD. So it is just a commodity (like any other commodity set at a certain price in time), and at that time it will be worth $1million per Unit.
It is like saying Oil , Gold, Palladium or Californium 252 (worth $30,000,000 PER GRAM) is more desired than the USD just because of its price pegged against the USD.
Hope this makes sense?
Thank you for bringing an interesting point up!
Cheers,
@shenobie