This is NOT me opining on whether they are or not, it is me asking those here on Steemit that have far more knowledge about the subject. I am relatively new to cryptocurrency, just several months in. While I do a lot of research before I act, hence even knowing about this, part of that is also listening to what others with much more experience think. For newbies just a hair behind me, here is what the Elliott Wave Principle is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
SO....
I'm interested in what folks here think about this. According to Goldman Sachs and a couple of others, we are in the final upswing of the 5th wave. Of course we have kind of gone beyond where most of them thought we'd cap the 5th wave at this point, as at the time of this writing Bitcoin is at $4918.00. But based on the theory, right around where we are now should be the peak of the 5th wave.
This theoretically would take us from the numbered waves, which are also know as the "impulse waves," into the lettered waves which are the "correction waves," as seen in the diagram above. If one subscribes to this theory, then as we often hear about crypto, there is a correction looming on the horizon.
Now whether or not this is the case, or bitcoin keeps climbing like it's on Mount Everest is the question we all likely have. Even if you don't own Bitcoin, it's price will effect the prices of most other crypto. Now if you've never heard of this principle and are panicking reading this.....
FEAR NOT
The 5th Wave and following lettered waves is not a prediction of doom. It is one of many cycles. The lettered waves are referred to as corrective waves. They go down, then up a little, then down and the wave completes. THAT wave....but then it hopefully starts the next iteration to reach new highs, as shown here.
Now IF one believes this, then one can capitalize on it or simply breath easy. If you plan on simply staying in HODL mode, maintaining a long term outlook, this may help you maintain your sanity when the corrective drops happen. However, if one cares to take a little more risk....one could take this info, sell high, then buy back in low during the corrective phase. Obviously this is a greater risk than simply HODL'ing, but.....it is very tempting, right? Who wouldn't rather have more Bitcoins for the future? So here is kind of the psychology of when different types of people get in and get out.
So looking at all of this, I don't really have a single question.....rather I am wondering what more investment and crypto savvy people think about the technique. It appears to really do well on buying and selling, the timing is critical. If ones psychology and knowledge isn't bold enough to get out at the right time then you gain nothing.
So maybe the best bet is simply to HODL. But I can't help but want to explore the chance of maybe selling soon and buying back in a little later thus enabling me to have more Bitcoins as I am at my self imposed cap on what I will spend overall. of course.....if it keeps going up, then of course you may have made a little profit, but you could have made a bunch.
Just something to think about. What do you folks think???
Not that I think many are reading this, but for the couple that might see it....
I gave the "principle" a shot, since everything lined up. I sold a couple of bitcoin and waited for the drop. Alas, in this case, it never came. I waited as long as I could and bought back in at a small loss. The loss was a loss on profits I had already made so no biggie, only a few hundred and as the saying goes, no risk no reward. But still frustrating.
So the big 5th wave never really happened. One could argue a small 5th wave correction did. Had I sold around 4800 and gotten back in around 4200 I would have made a few bucks. But I was not confident enough in the idea of the principle to risk that. HODL'ing.
Thanks for the Elliott Wave lesson.
Thanks for the comment, but I barely scratched the surface of it. I've been doing a lot of reading about it.....been watching Bitcoin and seeing how it "appears" to be following the pattern....was hoping we'd get a few more knowledgeable people to help edumacate the masses.
I'm still torn and leaning towards hodling for long term. I'll be kicking myself if it follows the pattern, lamenting about how I could have gotten more Bitcoin.....but if it doesn't follow it and keeps going up, I will be feeling pretty good. Either way if I stay with the hodl plan I'm safer.
But as they say..."no risk, no reward" so I haven't decided for sure yet.
Yeah, hodling and buying incrementally is my plan. I have a little set up of auto buying every other Sunday. I'm too new for complex analysis, but my gut tells me to invest what I can afford to lose and hope for the best, which could be pretty great in the long run! Thanks for the reply, sorry it took a bit to respond myself, been evacuating from Irma.
Hope everything is okay for you out there. My mom and ex wife are on the coast of Florida....so hoping one of them will be okay.
:-)
Great article, thank you!!
I believe that Bitcoin along with the entire crypto market are in the last part of the "5th Wave" of Elliott Wave Principle. It is at 5th sub-wave of the 5th wave. The question is how soon will it reach the top? Months..years..???
Thanks for the resteem @gaman. Most appreciated.