Yes, you have a point there. What I think is that if you want to make some profit and are planning to invest some money then don't go for bitcoin. In fact try to look for other cheap coins and buy them now when we have a bear market. I am sure in future we will soon have bull market and then there are more chances of that coin going from one dollar to three as compared to bitcoin going from 10k to 30k.
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The market goes in waves, so following the flow and buy after a long bear and hold until a long bull is safest bet.
Long term btc will go up hugely, but short term maybe best bet is to join my contest :)