New technologies from the light-bulb to the radio, to the TV, to computers, to the internet, to the smart phone , and so on tend to go through various phases.
The main phases identified are:
Phases
Innovators and inventors phase
Early adopters phase
Early majority phase
Late majority phase
Mass adoption phase
Laggards phase
The meaning of the above phases should be obvious. Where do you think we are on the bitcoin phase?
The "S" curve
The rate of adoption of the technology is described by something known as the "S" curve. You can google it for more information.
After the initial invention, early adoption is slow, but then it starts to speed up as the early and late majority start to use the technology. Finally the pace of growth slows as the technology gets mass adoption and finally it stablilises when the laggards come in.
Magic word
If you have read this post this far, please include the magic word "hodl" in your comment and I will be sure to upvote you.
Below you can see my interpretation of bitcoin adoption rates, plotted against the projected bitcoin price using "S" curve methodology.
Below is the same chart but annotated with key price points you should look out for. It shows you the dates - according to the expected adoption rates when the price of bitcoin should hit the key mile-stones of $100, $1000, $10'000, $100'000 and 1 million. Accroding to the slope of the "S" curve, it should be very fast to move from $1'000 to $10'000, and from $10'000 to $100'000. However the move from $100'000 to $1 million should take much longer.
If you would like to see some real life examples of the "S" curve inaction on the prices of other securities, look at the 30 year charts of Apple or Microsoft using a log scale.
Lastly, below is a little table I produced last night to help you work out when you might become a bitcoin millionaire. It does not use the same more sophisticated "S" curve maths used in the charts above, but rather instead assumes that the price growth rate seen so far in 2017 continues for a number of years. As can be seen in the "S" curve graph above, it won't be straight line growth, so the longer dated price projections are unlikely to be achieved unless the US Dollar fails.
Disclaimer -The above is not investment advice
Whilst the charts above have been constructed using mathematical principals, the mathematics require the use of a number of variables which have to be estimated based on present or past trends. These variables may change, or the assumptions made may turn out to be wrong. As can be seen, the bitcoin price did not always track the price projection curve, and it may not do so in the future. Therefore please treat this research as being for fun only.
It is not financial advice. The future growth rate may be different from that derived by looking at the past. In fact lots of things could even cause the price of bitcoin to fall to, or near to, zero, or there may be no market at all.
Bitcoin is, after all, nothing but a series of digits in the ether that you can't eat or even use for firewood.
Don't invest more money than you would be willing to completely lose.
If contemplating an investment in bitcoin, imagine you are betting on a three-legged donkey, or a fat greyhound. How much would you risk?
Will your friends laugh at you if you buy bitcoin and then the price falls sharply. Will they say "You're a foll. I told you so".? Can you take that kind of ridicule? If not, tell nobody.
Will your spouse divorce you and the kids hate you if the price plunges 50% tomorrow? If the answer is "Yes", then bitcoin is not for you.
It has taken me a great deal of time and work to gather the information and to do the research to put this post together. I really hope that you l like it!
Seriously - this was days of research and hard work! I really hope that you like the effort I made to bring this to the Steemit community.
This was great work, thank you! I've backtested your curve to the recent swings we've seen in the market and it still holds true. impressive. #HODL
I love the S curve and the magic word hodl :) I like your good analysis.
The first chart shows that we are already in the early majority phase. In October 2018, 50% of the people will use crypto? Possible.
The more people that do hodl the faster the whole thing rises. It is a bit of an interesting self-fulfilling prophecy. I am working on acquiring some more now because I will be honest, I am not sure I would have the stomach to hodl all my bitcoin at price levels of 100k or 500k.
If the market were to experience a major correction in the near future I would definitely load up.
The "S" curve, the tool that helps us explain the deeper hodl (s) around tech innovations, which only hodlers like @swissclive understands.
I like your effort, the hard work put in this research is paying off.
Keeping it coming , don't stop burning those candles that are bringing this kind of result to steemians.
Really appreciating the unique analysis and documentation here versus moon memes and unsubstantiated thoughts.
I may be mistaken, but you may have a typo in your S curve chart. The date of Oct 3 should be Nov 3, right?
@steemat. Very good spot! I will correct that.... Thanks for the support!
No prob! With the finder's reward you generously shared, you may have found yourself a full-time editor!! haha
Now the chart is corrected to reflect the all time high was yesterday. (All time high yet-again Why does this keep happening?)
Hah. You might as well just code in a dynamic calendar ticker that feeds off of anything but Kraken. Knock on wood.
Thanks for posting. Im not totally convinced by your application of s wave theory to future bit coin prices, especially on your time scales and without adding many many variables into the calculation, but fair play on the work put into the article. An excellent read and very well written.
Every success and best wishes to you and lets hope hod1, or even hodl, makes you a fortune :-)
I’m not convinced either. It’s a scenario based on certain assumptions and mathematical theory which involves variables which are different for every piece of new tech.
G'day. Good job on this analysis and I agree completely.
S curve / J curve / Bell curve - they all point to one thing - Bitcoin heading North.
Accumulate and Hodl and Prosper!!!!
While I keep searching for that magic unicorn hidden between the ALTS you found it in HODL BTC ;) Nice work and thanks for sharing this analyse with the community.
Chart is way to short in time for S curve adoption of new Internet currency. I upvoted you though. Just saying that its very unlikely in 2020 more than 50% of people would have any Bitcoin. Many issues remain to be solved in Bitcoin. It takes a lot of assumptions right now to get BTC price to $1 million per coin. I believe its going to take 30 years to get full adoption of crypto but the growth will be far beyond most can ever imagine now in trillions and trillions of USD value. While its still not clear Bitcoin will be the #1 coin in 10 years its very clear that crypto currencies are going to be wildly popular. Much more than people think today.
Thank you @hedge-x. That was a good contribution to the discussion.
Although there is a “fun” element and a lot of assumption I made, it does not take away the fact that we are still at an early stage. Will it make a million? I doubt it but then five years ago people doubted it would ever reach $1’000 then later $10’000. At the moment the direction in adoption is heavily positive, like email in 1994. The maths is telling that the unlikely is probable. Hodl away.....
I kick myself on the regular for not mining as many BTC as I could back in the day. The sad thing is I even knew about it and tried it out. I think I mined approximately 15 BTC before I said to myself: "This pretend internet money is stupid."
I naturally never backed anything up since I thought it was worthless, and so those coins are lost to the ages. I won't be making that mistake again!
So the next time a new currency is invented that will replace the world’s money, get mining fast! Personally I think gold and gold mining could be in with a chance.
You're one, of many, bloggers on Steemit that I believe is underappreciated. For me, you rank near the top of the list, but you're average payout is closer to 1 standard deviation above the mean, if even that. It boggles my mind!
The combination of your intelligence, unique perspective and dedication place you firmly at elite status in my book and I always look forward to your next piece on bitcoin analysis.
Thank you very much @jamesbrown. Those are very nice words indeed! I don't only write about bitcoin, but is very much in my mind at the moment. It feels like tech in the late 90s, and gold from 2001 to 2011.
I wrote a cooking guide for men (1) the other day - "How to make a fried-egg sandwich". After the success of that I think I may add "How to make toast", or "How to make coffee with Nescafe".
I have had some Bitcoins go through my accounts but never held on to much. Now I will accumulate and HODL some because I do think BTC will continue to rise. I like your analysis and projections!
Good article, really appreciate your time and effort, it was worth the good read! hodl is the way to go ;)
well I most certanily hope you are right. "hodl"
I hope this is correct
I was reading some 2013 posts on Reddit. Bitcoin was below $60. The uber bulls were calling for $100 by year end. Some even saw $1000 in a few years.
Imagine when we do! :P
I feel, we may run out of fiat money if bitcoin prices rise this way.
Interesting that everyone is predicting a price of 1 million usd for 1 bitcoin,
I am thinking, if we could actually use it in future ??
I want bitcoin to have a feature where a person sends coin to an address and there is a TTL (time to live) for the transaction and also, receipt confirmation of the transaction with fees paid exclusively in litoshi and not satoshi.
If that happens that is the day we succeed.
The world could be running out of fiat money? That definitely puts a new perspective on whether we should continue to use it for lighting fires and wiping our bottoms. But aren’t we just going to make the shortage of fiat even worse if we spend it all on bitcoin?
I agree that having a TTL feature would be useful.
Hodl hodl hodl and the hold more. Yes.
definitely hodl
Information is very good.tx @dedley lucky for your.no for get mee ok friend.
Currently we're just now completing the "innovators" phase.
I have to say this is by far the most optimistic estimate I have ever seen to date. Not to say its impossible but man who wouldn't want bitcoin to be worth a million bucks.
I think a few people here would want that.
Yep, the S word is now in my vocabulary.. now I can also explain it better when I tell my friend that BTC will be 100.000
Nice work @swissclive . Now following you. Thanks for your comment and vote the other day on my post, but hope you might actually give me a 100% vote sometime like I'm giving you. :-) @thoughtchain
I would rather like to believe in your analysis. But it appears way too optimistic. There will be serious pullbacks - whether from 8k to 2k or from 10k to 1k - I cannot predict. Even if the price eventually reaches 50 or 100k.
You are right. There will be some seriously bad months for reasons that we never foresaw. I am an optimistic person. It does seem inconceivable that bitcoin could reach these lofty highs, yet the maths says it will. Go back in time and you will find other projections which were regarded as over optimistic or wrong but came true.
"There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO
I think the curve will be quite a bit slower going to 1m I think it will take a generation, ie 20 years so maybe we can get there in 10.
I hope you are right, I would be very happy in two years
Very interesting work. It will be long until I'm a millionaire then :P
July 2020!
I'm just hoping it crashes a bit after the fork so I can buy buy buy!
Congratulations @swissclive! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
Click on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.
For more information about SteemitBoard, click here
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPI really like the way this sounds cause until now i have missed the bitcoin boat :(
I copied myself a sign. Now I will wait when I become a millionaire :)
So today is the right day to buy coins?
You got your points here, but I guess it would be impossible for so many people owning bitcoins right now to be future millionares. Or who knws? :D
hodl
img credz: pixabay.com
Nice, you got a 54.0% @investegg upgoat, thanks to @julienbh
Want a boost? Minnowbooster's got your back!
The @OriginalWorks bot has determined this post by @swissclive to be original material and upvoted(1.5%) it!
To call @OriginalWorks, simply reply to any post with @originalworks or !originalworks in your message!
Nice inspiration to me..
Thanks for "S" curve
Thanks For Your Good Info.
Very interesting theory.
Good
This post was resteemed & upvoted by @superbot - the Best Resteem bot on Planet !
Good Luck!
Follow for 10 minutes ,
Send 0.100 Steem/Steem Dollar and the URL in the memo that you want resteemed and upvoted.
So don't waste any time ! Get More Followers and gain more Visibility With Superbot .
Nice vote for u
Yeah cool, we all like these predictions. Millionaire in a bit more than year, hodl hodl my fellow hodlers 😜