I think you have made a point that most BTC longs have not realised. The powers of darkness will drive down the futures price expecting the cash market to follow. Except the cash market will do its own thing. Sure the whales will back the shorts - market professionals, as it helps them hedge some profits. But they won’t do it at any price. Whales want the price to be higher, not crashing. I think we will see a large price change in the first few minutes which will be the opposite of how the day closes.
By the way I discuss why tulip bulbs are not bitcoin in my last but one blog.