Very sound analysis. I think this is the idea across the board. There are plenty of people who have never been involved in bitcoin or crypto before. Many are starting to hear about it yet have no coins on their own. This will change over the next 12 months.
Over a 6 week period, BTC can go anywhere...up, down, sideways...however, in 12 months, BTC will be much higher.
As for BCH, that is DOA in my opinion. It solves nothing in terms of the problems on the blockchain, hence, what good is it?