I used to think that decentralization will succeed, but I'm not so sure anymore. It seems even these so-called decentralized systems eventually start to centralize at some point in their lifespan.
As for the governments, I doubt they go down without a massive fight. We won't win with clean hands, I'm afraid.
Civilization does hard crashes because civilization is based upon hierarchy. There will always be some wobble in the balance between centralization and decentralization.
Hierarchies aren't automatically unstable. You alluded to this with "wobble in the balance between centralization and decentralization". A baboon troupe has a hierarchical social structure that works well for them. Though hierarchies in human affairs have a way of becoming unstable. I think that it's because they attract the most alpha of the alpha males among us. A hierarchy is easy to corrupt and strong willed, egotistical, self interested person sitting at the apex is almost a guarantee of a bad outcome over the long term.
Compared to what? I'm making a comparison to nature itself which has managed with flat systems for millions of years. We have yet to have a government last more than a few hundred years. That's extremely unstable. If you want to say that a government like the USA has lasted 250 years and that's pretty good, your standards are too low. Civilization cannot last with that level of instability. This is why they crash hard.
As for the "wobble", I'm actually drawing a bit on esoteric knowledge that you'll find in Plato's Timaeus and the Same and Other dialogues. Some in the east know this as Yin / Yang. There will always be a battle between light and dark in this realm, but we haven't learned from nature yet how to resolve this dilemma. Nature has solved this problem with flat systems such as DNA structures that have no central authority. It has embedded within it, its own consensus algorithms.
There are hierarchical structures in nature. The alpha males in wolf packs and primate troupes are good examples. Seems to me that nature itself gravitates towards that which works best for any particular niche. Flat, decentralized structures have great utility in many applications. Hierarchical systems also have their uses.
I'm not saying that all hierarchical systems are bad. I use one in the Terran Atlas central database that I programmed. It isn't a distributed database using consensus algorithms.
You probably haven't read the rest of my blog on this subject which is rather long, but I talk about the unnatural accumulation of wealth and that this extreme centralization is a danger to the planet and that bitcoin which disallows inflationary measures prevents annihilation through excessive cost.
The goal here isn't the cure of the human condition. It's the restraining of the central impulses that will eventually given enough time lead to nuclear annihilation. Multisig found in smart contracts can fix this problem.
I think we agree in general. Decentralized control systems via blockchain will disrupt a lot of traditional methods. It will be interesting to watch it happen.
It would be nice if there was more disagreement in general in the population. There are far too many followers in agreement with a central authority. Had there been a bit more of this in the general population, maybe authority wouldn't have amassed so much wealth and destruction potential.
I think the problem is not hierarchy but unquestioned authority. And this authority then leads in consequence to a hierarchical and flawed systems.
There is for example nothing wrong when companies internally use a hierarchical structure or a baboon tribe does that. In both cases there is no unwarranted trust placed into the leaders. The company has to compete on the free markets and the baboon leader is constantly challenged by rivals.
But we trust our government and these power structures are not under pressure. We believe their stories and follow their laws. This is what makes it possible to get a deeply corrupted and hierarchical structure that is never found in nature and that is also very unstable.