13th March BTC Bears came out to play

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Yesterday's crash did change a lot of technicals viewpoint. Perhaps we may be going down to a new low after all. It may or may not happen but in case it happens, we would not panic because we have a plan for it.

Wave Analysis

The upmove so far from the 8400 low is not very convincing, and the crash yesterday confirmed that. Perhaps we should also look into a bearish count in the shorter term to prepare for plan B.


The whole upmove from 8400 is just an ABC correction and we are going down to new lows now. If this is right, it will be a capitulation move, where everyone declares BTC dead and there is no going back for BTC. It will not be a pretty move and currently that is a possibility.

Alligator

When a trend is established I like to use the Alligator to look for bounces off the moving averages on the 1H charts, but the big red bar yesterday on the 1H changed my bullish views. That one red bar broke through all 3 support lines and that is a very bearish signal for me. So I am expecting a retouch of the alligator lines before the next down move starts. However if price breaks above the alligator convincingly, I would turn bullish once again.

Ichimoku

What worries me is that the tenkan and kinjun lines are not moving, which means a big move is coming and it is increasingly likely that the big move is down instead of up because price is below those lines at this time.

MACD

If BTC had gone up yesterday we could be looking at a daily crossover on the MACD but in reality it crashed and gives more strength to the bearish cross on the daily charts. We could be looking at a final down move here. A capitulation stage where the crash removes all logic from many market participants and everyone panic sells. That will be the time to buy, if that happens.

This is my viewpoint if I was a bear, if the market crash to new lows, wait for people to panic and start posting stuffs like BTC is dead and a scam, then you can start buying.

Educational purposes only