I feel that any uncertainty in the world that can disrupt financial markets tends to be good for BTC. Those in areas which could be drastically impacted will be looking for ways to move money out of a currency that could become unstable and those around the world will look on with concern which leads to defensive measures.
While many would argue that crypto is not defensive I feel that enough of the population views it as such. They feel that crypto provides a level of protection between themselves and their current fiat risks.
Missiles launch and we will see a reaction from Russia which means things could escalate. The missiles alone aren't probably the one that launches BTC up, but if things escalate beyond that we will jump above $10k in a day IMO.