The futures are cash settled, low interest rates, no cost of carry, would suggest futures and physicals trade in line. Futures market gets pounded and physical price comes down too. eg. algo is trading both markets, it sees futures are getting hit, it bails on the physical and seeks opportunity to buy the future or spot at the lower levels. Basis traders will be eager to see how spot trades relative to front futures month, and how near and longer dated futures months behave relative to one another. One theory is the spreads will be sentiment driven.
You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
They should trade in line for the most part. It just wouldn’t surprise me to see some push for lower prices. Like I said, I don’t see smart money buying into something at ATH when they have the money to change the price. Hell there may even be existing whales that will use futures to hedge risk driving that market down.