For a few weeks now I have the feeling that the Train has already passed, as if the maximum of $109,000 has been all for this cycle.
However, I look again at the indicators created "specially" for BITCOIN according to its historical data and NONE is marking the TOP...
One of them is the "Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator".
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator chart uses two key moving averages to identify potential Bitcoin market cycle tops: the 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA) and the 350-Day Moving Average multiplied by 2 (350DMA x2). The 111DMA reflects short-term price trends, while the 350DMA x2 provides a longer-term perspective, adjusted by a factor of two to capture more gradual market behavior. A key signal occurs when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x2, historically indicating points where Bitcoin's price may have risen too quickly, potentially marking the peak of a market cycle. This crossing serves as a warning that Bitcoin may be overextended.
As you can see in the available history, to date, each BITCOIN top has been anticipated by this indicator more or less accurately. The crossing of the 111-DMA line (in PINK) over the other line with a longer period has been able to indicate to us the proximity of the maximum each time...
However, it does not seem that at present the pink line wants to cross the green one, rather it seems to go parallel to it...
This Top Cycle indicator, like many others, seems to not want to be disturbed by the current prices...it is as if we were still in a range or accumulation period which makes me think that we have one last powerful push left...However, the truth is that the BITCOIN ETFs seem to have changed everything this last year...
It seems as if these indicators worked better or were more precise in the times when there were no ETFs, this makes me think...how many of those BITCOINS that the ETFs trade are really BITCOINS? Do they really buy all the BITCOINS that they offer in their funds or is it just another number in a fictitious balance sheet?
I tend to think that they do...although, it wouldn't be strange if they didn't since, in the past, there have been many EXCHANGES whose balance sheets did not have the assets they offered...why wouldn't these funds do the same? Who audits them?
Again, although I'm suspicious, any ETF in SPOT has the obligation to buy the ASSET that backs it...but who verifies this? I don't have a fucking clue but just as proof of reserves was required from exchanges, I think the same should be done with the entities that manage these ETFs. I can already tell you that some of these entities, such as GRAYSCALE, have flatly refused to offer such information in the past...However, this can be a problem if it is not required by law.
In any case, yes, it seems that we are still far from the top. Unless everything has been distorted to unsuspected levels...
I think the ETFs has distorted things quite a bit. Those big funds have a reason to manipulate prices and I think they are based on futures, not actual BTC right?
Spot ETF should be based on actual BTC
I think we need to wait couple months for Ukraine war end, then prices might get good
Indeed I have seen a video of a german Bitcoin analyst and he said the same thing. We are not close to the cycle top yet. 🙌🏻
Far from the top 😉
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STOP