Bitcoin's three-day winning streak (BTC) is encouraging for bulls, but only a quick move above $ 10,500 would negate the risks of the so-called "death cross".
After peaking at $ 7,335 on Sunday, CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) reached $ 9,127 today, the highest level since March 14. To date, the BPI is valued at $ 9,074. The decline in high intraday may be associated with signs of bearish divergence in the relative strength index observed on the hourly chart.
The 22.7% recovery of $ 7,335 suggests that the bulls have regained control, at least for now. However, the cryptocurrency is not yet out of the wood, indicate the long-term technical studies.
For starters, the cryptocurrency is still in a downtrend as indicated by the descending trendline of December 17th and the January 6th high is intact. And what's more, the imminent and scary "death cross" - when the 50-day moving average (MA) will cut the 200-day MA from the top - could throw a key in the works.
Daily chart
The graph above shows (price according to Bitfinex) that bitcoin will encounter a number of steep resistance points in the $ 9,180- $ 9,470 range:
The 200-day moving average is estimated at $ 9,181.
The double cleavage resistance (former support) is $ 9,280 (February 25th low).
The 50-day moving average resistance is estimated at $ 9,449.
50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline is $ 9,470.
A net break of more than $ 9,470 would provide more power to the bulls. That said, the weekly chart shows a bullish reversal of just over $ 11,700.
Bulls therefore need at least a fast and convincing break of more than $ 10,500 (long-term downward resistance).
Failing to do so, the 50-day MA will likely result in a 200-day reduction in the MA from above (the above-mentioned death crossing). As discussed on Monday, the death cross is not a reliable indicator, as most of the sale has already taken place (RSI shows the oversold condition) by the time the crossover is confirmed.
However, the death cross could bring liquidation in this case, since the RSI is less than 50.00 (in the bearish territory), but holding well above 30.00 (oversold territory).
View
A quick break above $ 10,500 would open the door to a bullish reversal (above $ 11,700).
A consolidation of about $ 9,000 could end up triggering another selloff. In such a scenario, prices could review the February low of $ 6,000.
The more BTC will need $ 9,180 - $ 9,470, the higher the risk of the "cross of death", as the weekly chart is skewed for falling prices..!.jpeg)