Have we broken out?

in #bitcoin5 years ago

The total crypto market has broken out of the downtrend on the weekly chart. For bitcoin however, it's not so clear. Depending on the exchange data and the way the down sloping trend line is drawn, it can and cannot be broken out. Some charts below.




So, on Bitstamp and Binance we have broken out of the weekly downtrend, on Coinbase and Bitfinex not. I'm going to let the total crypto market chart be the referee here and conclude that we have broken out of the downtrend and consequently put in the wave 2 bottom.

In addition, the most important principle in Elliott wave theory is the continuous alternation between impulsive and corrective moves on all time frames. Looking at the below 3 hour chart, it's not difficult to see that we've had a strong impulsive move up and we're now correcting a bit sideways. As an impulse cannot stand by itself, it must be followed by at least one more impulse; after which we will have certainly broken out of the downtrend.

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And since this impulsive move can hardly be counted as 5 waves up, we probably are still in a correction.

That's a good point: there is no clear five wave to count yet. Of course, all Elliott impulse moves can be either extended or truncated - so, if you really want to, there is a count to be made. But it won't be a pretty one. I understand that the move up from $7300 to over $10k was the third largest move in the history of bitcoin; probably not a correction.