Ecclectic analyst Ronnie Moas, better perhaps known as the one-man show behind Standpoint Research, ventured into the field of cryptocurrencies this morning when, in a note to clients he predicted that Bitcoin will double to $5,000 in 2018 - roughly in line with Goldman's recent bullish outlook which sees Bitcoin rising just shy of $4,000 in a best case scenario - then hit $25,000 to $50,000 in the next decade.
Moah's bullish view - he said he bought “a little bit” of litecoin, bitcoin and ethereum in a Coinbase.com account - is predicated on the assumption that while the broader market could undergo a correction in the near term, over the next decade it has only one way to go:
The cryptocurrency market, if you play it wisely, is actually appreciating at a rapid rate, and even though you missed out on the big move in the last few years, it was a big move off of a very low base and this industry is still in its infancy relative to where it could go in the next 5-10 years.
Moas said he’s “only a bit concerned that there may be a near-term bubble,” but long term, there’s potential to make triple-digit returns.
His logic is simple, and is based on comparative market share:
Bitcoin market cap is now $40 bln and Ethereum is at $20 bln. Looks as though there is legitimacy there. They have run up a lot already, but crypto-currencies are still just 1.00% of Gold ($8 trillion) and 0.10% compared to stocks and cash. If this is legitimate and crypto-currencies capture 1.0%-1.5% of the stocks and cash market share, then you are looking at a situation where a $100,000 investment today could be worth more than $1,000,000 a few years (or more) down the line.
Another reason why he is bullish: "I am looking at what the size of this crypto-currency market (~$80 bln) is relative to the ~$8 trillion gold market (1.00%) and the (~$80 trillion) stocks/cash market (0.10%). Many people have gold in their portfolios, and watching what their gold is doing for them is like watching paint dry on the wall. If you are in stocks, the stock market is at an all-time high and you have to worry about that losing value in the near- to mid-term."
He sees a binary outcome: "This will either crash and burn … or continue to go higher and take market share away from stocks and currencies."
He adds that “there are only 21,000,000 bitcoins in circulation and the world will fight over those 21 million coins as confidence in currency and other investments deteriorates. I have little doubt that 1% of the money in cash, bonds, stocks and gold will end up in cryptocurrencies.”
His lack of doubt on the flow of funds into cryptos is why he is comfortable with his dramatic recommendation:
Just as with any stock recommendation, I can give you ten reasons why you should buy and ten reasons why you should sell or sit on the sidelines. I can afford to lose $25,000-$50,000 on this. What would be more painful is sitting on the sidelines and watch this jump by 500%, 1000% or 2000% over the next 5-10 years. My initial/gut instinct tells me that this is what will happen.
To be sure, Moas admits that he is only "in the early stages of my research. I quickly dismissed it back in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Now, we are in 2017 -- the market cap is $80 billion and I (and others) must take it a bit more seriously" and he promises to publish a 40-page report on cryptocurrencies in August, although one can probably guess his conclusion.
According to Bloomberg, Moas' euphoria is a "testament to the exuberance around bitcoin, ethereum and other blockchain assets that equity investors who hadn’t been involved in cryptocurrencies are now starting to analyze and make bets on the sector along with established bitcoin enthusiasts who see long-term gains, even if they say there might be a correction after the recent rally."
Perhaps, or perhaps like many other slow adopters Moas is just late in jumping on what the crypto bubble, which if more share Moas' sentiment, will become far bigger before it finally bursts:
I have concerns about crypto-currency but my bias right now is thinking that this is something legitimate and that it is too late for regulators and the (threatened) financial services industry to get this back in the box the same way yellow taxis can’t get Uber back in the box. Just as Uber is now too big to crack down on, so are Bitcoin and Ethereum. I am very excited about this opportunity (and I hope it is justified). In fact, I opened up an account today and already bought some Litecoin, Bitcoin and Ethereum for myself.
His parting words, to the skeptics: "It will probably be more upsetting to watch it go up another 1,000% (from the sidelines)."
Source : ZeroHedge
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I agree on this forecast. Fundamentally Bitcoin is still getting stronger every day. multiple countries just legalized it, many merchants are starting to accept it and more and more investors want to hold a part of their portfolio in BTC. This in combination with the limited supply, WILL push the price up if no crazy things happen (bugs, attacks ect.).
Emp
Bitcoin is not getting fundamentally stronger at all. It's still a 10 minute block time 5 tx/s limited sorry excuse for a digital currency.
Even without scaling Bitcoin is getting stronger and can reach extremely high price levels, since the Segwitx2 deal is signed the network doesn't get spammed anymore and works fine. However scaling its getting better slowly, the probability of Segwit is getting bigger and bigger, RSK will come soon with thousands tx/s and will add the possibility for smart contracts.
I think 10 minutes block time is perfect. Faster is possible, but will be on the expense of security. Security is the most valuable selling point of bitcoin, no other crypto can beat this. This makes bitcoin still the first choice for remittance, store of value, big international transfers ect. If you want to pay your coffee, you can use another coin for now and bitcoin will enable this in the future via 2nd layers.
bitcoin is the mother of all cryptocurrencies so it does have a bright future ahead. It is becoming more known and recognized worldwide so big investors are starting to come in and invest too in bitcoins and some altcoins too. Though we really can't predict whats ahead of us but we know for sure it does have a bright future.
Sounds like an educated analysis.
I still hate it though because the transaction fees are so high and transaction time is so slow. Steem and Bitconnect coins are better IMHO.
That's why it's wrong. Or even if it is right, MANY other superior projects will significantly outperform it along the way.
Useful post, thanks so much for sharing. I think it might correct or go sideways in the short term. However, I think it's going to be a solid investment for the next several years. Cryptocurrencies can offer another way for people to store their wealth other than gold. This works out especially well for someone that's living in a country with a high rate of inflation as they can now more safely store their wealth. I am definitely sure that cryptocurrencies will be larger than the 1% currently in financial assets.
I think $5,000 end of August and $6,642.13 at the year's end. The halving will be in 2020 if I remember correctly so I think $25,000 the and $50,000 at the year 2024.
No way. 3 more years till $25k? It was $600 last year, $2600 right now. That's a 4x growth year on year. I'm guessing $20k sometime next year. $80k well before 2020.
I actually hope your right, for my Bitcoin's sake!
I think his analysis is to conservative...
China, Russia and Sth America have begun adopting bitcoin and the blockchain, I say $5000 before years end.
Blockchain, yes. Bitcoin is incapable of being adopted for the purpose of a currency any time soon.
It was $600 last year, $2600 right now. That's a 4x growth year on year. I'm guessing $20k sometime next year. $80k well before 2020. Give me some data on why that's not a reasonable prediction.
But recently I think u have heard the news a Bitcoin website has been hacked and all the eth and Bitcoin have been stolen by the hackers. I don't remember the site but have a look in Google but if it is the situation then Bitcoin will surely have a fall in its price
All the crystal balls in the world won't be able to predict where this goes in 10 years. So when investing in alt coins pick 3-9 months for short, and 1-2 years long term. Anything past that point is a wild guess.
Awesome posting!
I am 100% behind this article in that I see endless possibilities for Bitcoin as well as other Cryptocurrencies. There are just so many advantages to the digital money world. And a huge bonus is moving away from that Fiat money that the government has so many people enslaved with.
It's all about scarcity and the fear of losing out. Then again, just because Moa is investing in crypto doesn't really mean you should too. Always know how much you are prepared to lose. Steem on and stay safe.
Solid points made by the analyst and by the commenters on this post. I believe that when it hits the mainstream investor, the benefits of investing will far outweigh the risks and things are poised to grow. All it needs is more ongoing attention brought to it so that it stays in the public eye. $5k btc seems quite doable considering how (relatively) few people are into it, right now.
Interesting... and entirely likely. Bitcoin is getting more and more traction in the mainstream. The more people start seeing the "Bitcoin accepted here" sign on shop windows and web sites, the more it will spark investment interest... I'm sure there will be some FOMO speculation, but the underlying idea and tech remains solid... and they points of the size of crypto capitalization vs. other investment assets is telling: we are only at the very beginning of something.
The underlying tech is 5 tx/s and 10 minute blocks. As people actually try to transact with Bitcoin they'll realize just how feeble it is and switch to a legitimate currency.
Lets hope this is correct. For the moment I want to see Bitcoin remain stable in the 2500 to 2700 range for the next few months and then lets march forward
stay cool and wait for hardfork
Even if Bitcoin goes to $5k, it will be outperformed by many superior projects along the way.
Next year is too far, what going on right-now?
steady..
Good posting. Thanks
I would agree, it is too late for governments and the financial sector, the genie is already out of the bottle. ;-)
I look forward to August 1, since my investments are likely to increase, since the course from Augustus should jump up.
He mentions multiple times that the outcome will be binary. That lends credibility to his thought process in my opinion. It will be worth very very little or a whole lot more in 3 or 4 years. And if it is the whole lot more path you will kick yourself if you were sitting on the sidelines.
STEEM On!
Dave
lolololol yeahhhhh NO. Definitely wrong on $5k next year.
Nice post!
may be