The separation of chain and coinage.

Since March 5, bitcoin has again emerged from a downward trend. From the perspective of technical graphics, the second rally in early march did not break through the rebound high in February, leaving the m-head shape, and the market sentiment was obviously bearish. For open virtual currency market movements, since I worked in February 7 articles "reveal the currency plunged reasons, there are several different this time" the conclusion is given, and the future quite a long time, after plummeting have jumped and can record high logic may fail ".

Now, that conclusion is still valid, and virtual currencies such as bitcoin are losing ground. For friends who want to copy the bottom, please be prepared for the long term.

Short-term factors: policy suppression and profit-taking.

In the speculative market, short-term fluctuations are mainly affected by market sentiment. In the past few months, the multinational regulatory authorities have become the main source of negative sentiment in the market over the potential risks and problems of virtual currencies.

In September 2017, China introduced ICO new rules, and virtual currency transactions were "expelled" from the country and voluntarily "surrendered" the status of the first trading power. At that time, some countries were still stealing, thinking that they could pick up a leak, in the virtual money market in the curve overtaking, and finally found a hot potato.

In any country, regardless of its policy system, maintaining the independence of monetary policy and protecting investors from fraud is the basic responsibility of the financial regulatory authorities. The proliferation of virtual currencies and ICO will erode both of these cornerstones.

The virtual currency moves from the geek clique to the general public, relying on the creation of the rich effect, the new entrant is stimulated by the dream of wealth, the more speculative the currency is more attractive. In thousands of virtual currencies around the world, the market is small and speculative, and the appeal of the air currency is far greater than that of traditional currencies such as bitcoin and the ether.

It is just that the air currency speculation is doomed to a tragic end, and the authorities will not be able to sit still as their own investors are harvested as leeks.

Since December 2017, has always been famous for easing the South Korea began a series of policy tightening, first banned all government officials hold and trade encryption currency, then ICO moratorium, and banned foreigners in the domestic currency transactions encrypted. Indonesia, Russia, India, the United States, France, Germany, Japan and other countries have also pledged to strengthen virtual currency supervision.

At the same time, as more and more merchants to accept the currency of payment, governments began to realize that a sovereign, decentralization, resistance to review (partly) digital currency will pose a great threat to domestic monetary policy system. Especially in the areas such as anti-money laundering and cross-border capital circulation, the virtual currency of anonymous characteristics is regarded as a serious problem. One example is the recent joint call between France and Germany to focus on anti-money laundering in virtual currencies and the possibility of funding terrorism.

From a future currency to a hot potato, only in a matter of months. The newly minted leeks are still in the midst of a surge of euphoria, and the sensitive bitcoin whale, which has a large number of bitcoins, is quietly selling off. The selloff triggered a selloff, which in turn triggered a sustained fall and a weak rebound.

March 17, according to a report in Japan's currency whale kobayashi sold more than $400 million in currency (BTC) cash and COINS (BCH), despite its repeated propaganda is "use to avoid influence the market price sell BTC and BCH", many people still believe that he's selling triggered follow other big banker to sell in advance, even is the important cause of COINS the waves crash.

Here, market manipulation has surfaced. This is also the most fatal weakness of the ICO, which is a huge profit in the medium term.

Mid - term bearish: not high quality speculation.

It's a huge problem. In the investment logic of cryptographic currency, I have mentioned the huge problems of the supply mechanism of most virtual currencies:

"In addition to several COINS and a few other currencies, almost all of the fake COINS and currency will be in the form of ICO competition for founding, structure is usually" X + Y/year, namely the ICO phase distribution X, issued each year after Y (Y, of course, is not constant, but according to certain rules of dynamic changes).

Most of the time, X's proportion is not high, but for some digital currency, accounting for 70% or more than X, considering that the remaining 30% is for hundreds of years of time gradually release, the initial stage of a few years ago, X can account for more than 90% of turnover, founding team and initial ICO participants become in fact giant zhuang.

The existence of the huge village, so that investors tend to short-term trading, timely profit-taking, to avoid being a giant harvest of chives. Once the market style of short - term operation is formed, the volatility increases, but it creates the conditions for leek harvest.

Compared with other virtual currencies, COINS without ICO, basic belongs to the uniform distribution, but considering the early low mining difficulty, with fewer people, high output, low price, can't rule out the possibility of early someone a large number of chariot currency. In fact, it is not accurate to say that there are big whales in the world of bitcoin, so much so that every time a whale falls down, it is mentioned.

The existence of the huge village makes the virtual currency is not the ideal speculation, more like the sharp chives. Actually, cut chives, is not only the giant behind the village, not regulated exchanges also athletes, to encourage you to leveraged buy-outs, and then let you broke in operation market, without leverage leeks, holding on to a purse stolen events can also be the majestic, had it's 666.

The paradox of monetary and speculative attributes. Supporters so look at the rise of the currency, "the currency like the phoenix rise from the ashes of the 2008 global financial disaster - this is a disaster caused by the fed and other central bank policy". Indeed, an unregulated, decentralised currency has tenacious vitality, but the currency's attributes have been played out by speculators.

As a measure of value and storage, currency stability is the basic demand, which is why central Banks generally regard the prevention and control of inflation as the primary task. After all, if you can buy a car today, if you can buy a car today, you can only buy a green onion tomorrow, and that currency will be abandoned (see Zimbabwe dollar).

The speculative nature of bitcoin is too strong to be a universal means of payment. As a result, the payment attribute can only be limited to a small circle. Just, can not become the common currency, after all is a niche investment product, "a dollar a villa" confidence from where?

Long-term factor: token's de-monetization.

The blockchain was once the most solid foundation for virtual currencies, but the foundation is crumbling as token is monetized.

Once the chain is the integration of virtual currency and blocks, chain block is a kind of decentralized accounting system, the virtual currency was act as the small scale within the ecological value and the means of payment, is the "currency" within the chain block. An ecosystem without money is incomplete, so it is believed that each blockchain eventually needs a virtual currency. Many of the ICO project, are portrayed block chain ecological broad prospects, has gone through the roof is ICO tokens, is this logic, it is believed that the prosperity of block chain will bring chain within virtual currency demand increased and prices.

The question is, is this true?

Look at the practice of the alliance chain first. At present, the giants accelerate the layout of the blockchain, the alliance chain is the first choice, many currency circle investors are happy, in fact, what is the relationship with the virtual currency you invest in?

In the alliance chain, the participating parties such as billing node, common node, identity gateway, information gateway, etc., need to be motivated, but it is not a token incentive. On the one hand, the organizations that join the alliance chain have cooperative relations outside the chain, just to improve the transparency and efficiency of the business through the blockchain, and the business cooperation itself is the biggest incentive. On the other hand, as long as the workload statistics, the external monetary incentive is also a choice, why bother to make a token?

In the case of the public chain, the participation of all parties in the chain is lack of cooperation, and the tokens in the chain may be a better choice. However, this kind of intra-chain token is gradually becoming token, which is similar to an integral in a chain, which can only be exchanged for interest in the ecosphere. Neither monetary nor speculative property is required. In the case of the thunderbolt and the 23-45-star, a similar attempt has been made.

The world needs a blockchain, but it doesn't necessarily need bitcoins, and the chain and coinage are going away, which is the biggest advantage.

A number of coinage leaders said that before investing in virtual currency, they had a psychological expectation of zero. As an investor, are you prepared for this?