Governments will never create a decentralized cryptocurrency, agreed. It would be too embarrassing, and they'd tell us it's a national security matter to keep military expenses private, when really they're hiding the skeletons in their closets.
However, it feels naïve to assume that the government will fight fairly in this matter. They will likely use the guise of "national security" to attempt at destabilizing the decentralized cryptos (aka terrorism or cyber-warfare event) while rolling out their "Fed Coin".
Those who do not educate themselves (which sadly is the majority) will then begin using the Fed Coin because the all-knowing government has deemed it safe, secure, and it's a better alternative to the inflationary USD. The government may incentivize citizens to leave fiat for Fed-Coin, or worse, may decree it the law of the land overnight (like India's ban on large denomination cash bills) or FDR's gold confiscation.
War-time events (fear, really) cause societies to throw logic out the window and go to extreme measures. While most seem to be awaiting a physical confrontation with boots on the ground, it seems just as likely (if not more likely) that a cyberwar-event could pose as a catalyst.
I am just playing devil's advocate here! Your post had me thinking about this, and while I agree with you and thought your closing comments were insightful, I think perhaps some are getting ahead of themselves when they say we've won thanks to blockchain. Though I share the optimism, it's still early! We need the developers of the current coins to work efficiently, scale, and gain adoption all while navigating some form of regulation. This is all more nuanced the further you dig in, just like Game of Thrones is, as you allude to.
Oh I never doubted that, I just never wrote about that in this post. I did wrote about similar things a few times, how they try to crack down on the public but it never works every time there is a new invention.
Just like when the printing press came out, they did all they could to ban it, including torture or murder... They went door to door to every house and publicly execute any one who had a book..
But just like all civilizations, the ending was the same.
Now, I have no doubt they will try to ban it. Hell I think they'll try to shut the internet down, dictators always wanna bring everyone down with them, I never said it's easy.
But they can't stop this cause they can't go door to door, and if they did they cannot fin out who uses crypto and who does it.
I think the game will be played in the next 5-10 years where Cryptos will try to gain mass-adoption through the new channels, and the goverments in MSM and their fake news..
If there is mass-adoption the game is pretty much over.. Short of an EMP :P
But it's just an opinion from a fellow thinker, who knows?
Thanks for the interesting and engaging comment :)
Thanks for responding further @the-alien!
Yes, it is quite a topic to grapple with in a single post. I agree that the free market will always outmaneuver the lead-footed government and the invention of digital ledger tech is a game changer. However, I believe it's always a healthy exercise to keep expectations in check, and one way to do so is to try and anticipate how the governments and centralized powers will fight to suppress this game changer.
As an ardent reader of history, my main concern with the current sentiment in the crypto community is that the change is expected to happen in too short of a time frame. I think that a 10 year timeframe is very reasonable for a flourishing crypto market, yet I sense that many are investing on a 1-3 year timeframe.
In 5 years, it seems very likely that crypto adoption will accelerate as a number of looming debts mature, and the credit cycle will likely roll-over only aggravating the confidence in the fiat system further. And just for icing on the cake, that is not taking into account any geopolitical Black Swan event :)
Enjoying your content, my friend. Best to you.