BTC has not yet broken the larger wedge downward. Risk:reward is on the side of bulls

in #btc7 years ago

Point and Figure Chart We have moved into a long pole of 16 O's. 31 of the last 61 long poles of O's have been larger than 16. This comes after we had resolved all long poles going back the last 8 months, and over two weeks of no new long poles. This was a clear break downward from a small wedge.

Yesterday I pointed out we are in a small PnF range between 7,326 and 7,776. We've broken out of that range and into a new larger range between 6,383 and 7,776. A break of 6,383 would be a confirmation that our large wedge has broken per our PnF chart.

You might notice I used the words 'small wedge' and 'large wedge'. My method of charting shows that we have still not broken the large wedge.

Here is my chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdEr06Ii/ The small wedge is labeled in pink, a color I use to signify weakness or <1 day timeframe. The royal blue lines represent the large wedge, a color I use to signify strength or a 1 week timeframe. We are currently testing the blue trendline. For the large timeframe, a daily or weekly close below the trendline would be a confirmation of a break down. A move below PnF range (below 6,383) would be a confirmation of a break down.

The risk:reward is currently in the bulls favor. We are currently at trendline support. A long could be taken here with a tight stop; more upside potential than downside. In the above chart, I circled 3 daily red volume spikes. As you can see, we have been trending downward on the daily. Some traders believe that trends tend to occur in 3 cycles. If they are correct, this was the third 'dump' and you should stop playing the downtrend.

We are still in a downward trend on the weekly timeframe. Since this wedge is in the weekly timeframe, that means statistically the large wedge is more likely to break down. We are on a downward trend on the 4 hour, the daily, and the weekly. The large wedge is more likely to break down than up: you'll need your upside % to be much higher than your downside %, aka set a tight stop.

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