Weakness is hard to find in this market, and, curiously, BTC is within that relatively weak group as defined by crypto that has still to regain the 200 DMA.
Make of it what you will, but the fact is that the market ‘leader’ is weaker than most.
Now the debate should be: is BTC losing ground long term, or just indicating another bearish move lower for crypto in general. (Hint: on a relative basis it’s been losing ground for a long time now.)
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
It as well could be. However before we make any predictions we should be really cautious. I have seen so many times this kind of sentiment. In this market it’s really hard to predict. My feeling is sideways for time being. I was expecting bitcoin to break 10K, but now seing 200MA it all make sense. We need some kind of great news for bitcoin to break both. Just because bitcoin is weak, doesn’t mean it stays weak. RSI is in my opinion still to the upside. If you look at RSI history right before last year’s in November and compare it with today’s you can clearly see it still has way to go.
Good perspective and advice, as always.
Consensus 2018 might be the big thing. 4000+ guests and a lot of key figures will speak, so this might mark the end of the bear market and eventually the beginning of a new bull market.
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$BTC showing some weakness on higher timeframes with a bearish divergence. On lower timeframes you can make the argument of a pennant forming...BTC the weakest of the big 3. Finding support on the 50ema
That shorter timeframe pattern could be indicating a bit more short term weakness.
It almost looks like a reversed H&S. My guess is bitcoin will break higher. Once this happens, it will be unstoppable. Today’s SEC meeting was laughable. I call it another FUD 😆. After today’s dip it’s now nicely recovering. That’s the good sign.
Perhaps too long! I’m ready for anything. But hoping for break of 200 moving average and well above!
There are lots of inverse H&S possible building, especially among those I consider to be the better bets.
BTW, do you have any links to the SEC meeting?
Not directly, it was actualy behind the closed doors or some even say it was a hoax. I heard mostly about it from @dhenz @ @crypt0.
BTC is the most solid coin atm, nothing is lost by investing in it, unless it has a considerable rise but has the advantage of being at the top of the podium.
You could even consider it a crypto "blue chip". In fact, I'd say it is considered a blue chip. Less speculative, and less like to have spectacular gains too.
I believe Bitcoin is slowly losing strength because at this point, it really doesn't provide anything that other crypto currencies don't provide, the only thing btc has left for it is that it was the first one and the one to go big and it was the poster boy of the crypto revolution.
Bitcoin right now is running on obsolete tech, the transaction fees are lower than what they where in December but they are relatively high compared to other cryptos(including Steem which are almost zero) and i expect BTC market dominance to hit 30% at some point in the next few months and if we have a decent alts rally, i would not be surprised if it went down to 25%.
Bitcoin has accomplished its mission but its time to pass on the mantle because the dev team doesn't seem to be up to task to make drastic changes at this point, soon a new crypto king will be crowned or maybe there won't be a new king at all but for now.... The King is dead, Long live the King!
I pretty much agree with you on all counts. It is what it is, and I think BTC just might end up being the Osborne 1 of crypto.
I'm not convinced the two are mutually exclusive. While we've seen a nice recovery lately across all crypto, all the indicators suggest an overall slowdown in "new" interest in crypto. See, in particular: https://cointelegraph.com/news/pro-btc-wall-st-analyst-urges-not-to-buy-crypto-now-despite-recent-rally
Because BTC is what most people buy due to awareness and Coinbase's limited menu, it's an indicator of overall crypto interest. That being said, I also agree there's a long-term shift towards alts from BTC, esp. amongst longer term investors so BTC has double exposure there.
All this to say - some of the reasons why I'm not in BTC at the moment and instead in alts!
Very valid point, and I'd say they're not.
This topic is very interesting, as time goes by bitcoin dominance is decreasing, but it is still leading the market.
In January 2017 its dominance was 85%, today it is 36% and it seems that it will not return to 50%. Maybe in the future the fluctuations of bitcoin will not affect the altcoins so much and these will depend exclusively on other factors.
I also believe that if we break the 200 MA, a good part of the capital will go to BTC, but as soon as this stabilizes, it will return to altcoins.
That's a pattern we have come to know and love, but is it forever? 😉
Definitely not,shorter lows will be compensated by greater highs...
We all know what potential bitcoin has...
Maybe it is the struggling time but be prepared for the Boom
I think we will slowly see a decline in btc dominance but it will be slow going. As far as the crypto markets in general are concerned, we seem to be teetering at a pivotal point right now. It’s good to see some coins start to move on their own and not everything just follow btc like it used to.
I have no idea where btc is going next. I was convinced it was going to form an ascending wedge and eventually break through 10k but I’m not certain about that. Sadly the investment banks and the hedge funds and now involved in the trading of cryptos so it’s going to be harder to predict direction based on TA / indicators.
It looks like $9,000 might be building as support. It's a big technical level I've seen people commenting on. We shall see. It could be building a base.
Bitcoin S3: 8824.24
S2: 9084.93
S1: 9240.51
P: 9345.62
R1: 9501.2
R2: 9606.31
R3: 9867 ( These are the current support and resistance level for Daily movement.)
The price has dropped to $9,300, demonstrating another 3 percent decline in value over the past 24 hours after failing to test the $10,000 support level. The market followed the short-term price trend of BTC and has dropped more than $20 billion overnight.
Even though, I beleive it is just creating its ground for further movement to the top. 200 Day market Analysis also proving its current price strength. Though, it has need a great news to break through the 10k mark. If it can break that support level, it will sure go for another big bullish trend.( Just my thought)
Sound analysis. Your S2 could be holding.
Already it bounced once from $9190. S2 is now on focus.And thanks.
I think BTC is a key indicator of the overall market sentiment but it has a lot of its value priced into it right now given where it has come from since its creation. Therefore, other assets with promising projects will tend to outperform when demand and sentiment is positive in the market. So when these overall increases happen BTC dominance will fall like it has recently from 48% to below 37%. This is not a bad thing for BTC either as it cannot be expected to always dominate the market cap forever. Rather, certain projects will dominate in their own space (i.e. ETH in platform and Dash in privacy coins). The market as a whole will continue to move forward.
Yes, I agree. The future of crypto will be more of a niche market for all the winners, with the biggest winners being those that are still up-and-coming in their individual spaces (and BTC has had of lot of its value built in already).
I always believe BTC is the ALPHA of all cryptos! But that doesn't mean it might be the future! We all know BTC can't be integrated with real time businesses, like shopping marts and etc!
But ETH tried something different and BTS, STEEM and EOS are the future of all! This is what I believe about current crypto market!
The demand of the coin is based on the project or projects which are backing it! That's why I am awaiting to hear the big new of the launch of SMT based on STEEM!
And BTS has chosen another powerful case study and ADA, EOS are trying their best to get the market dominance of ETH and so far it worked well!
As ALPHA, BTC is doing not so good! But the future coins STEEM, BTS, EOS, ADA will dominance the market in next 2-5 years of time!
While it happens, more BTC dummies will be born and will drain the actual power which contains with BTC!@cryptographic,
By the way, June-December we got seasonal up trend and BTC will reach to new ATH (All Time High). But it's not a matter to see the drop of market dominance of BTC in upcoming years
Cheers~
Yes. Seasonality is another plus that should generally be on the bull's side going forward.
LOL You Bitcoin bear.
You are just biased since you love BTS and STEEM.....and some other tokens.
I could make an entire argument for Bitcoin except I agree with your view hence my hodlings in STEEM and BTS..... 😀
At the end of the day, BTC will get the Wall Street money since it is the one crypto that hedge fund managers can use to separate clients from their checks.
The other tokens are going to appreciate because of development. And STEEM appears to be one of the leaders in that area....
Interesting coincidence....
I think Wall Street will take a fairly diversified approach that will be spread pretty evenly over the best of the best. BTC is the window display that will draw them into the shop, but I expect them to also like a lot of what's inside. 😈
@stan is working hard on drawing them onto the BTS blockchain. One of the ideas being worked upon is to set up a different chain (hybrid with EOS?) for institutions and to be able to comply with the KYC laws.
If @stan has his way, he will pick the NASDAQ up and throw the entire thing on Bitshares.
I hadn't quite looked at it that way... Thanks for a new perspective. I think my problem is I use an entirely different Moving Average system (7, 77, 341, on a 6 hour chart), so I often forget to check out the 50, 100, 200.
As for whether BTC is losing ground... It's a question I ( and we all!) have been asking myself for a long time. When I started trading in early December last year, I vowed to keep at least 40% of my holdings in BTC ... That percentage got less and less over time and at this minute, I have nothing in BTC, lol. Probably not wise, but I just had to buy more EOS.
So this makes me think I've slowly been subconsciously losing a bit of faith in BTC... But still, it is the first mover and where all the new money first flows to when anyone gets into crypto... And also probably where all the Big Money is going to... So I think it would take alot to overthrow the giant. Gods know Roger Ver is trying his best, the sneaky bastard.
You've gained a follower =) I'm an artist using fractals to create motifs and fine art, if you'd like to check me out. Bye for now.
Slowly losing faith in BTC? Or, slowly gaining faith in other more promising projects? 😉
Indeed ;) ... EOS and ADA are my two top faves... ADA on top if it succeeds in its very ambitious plans. XLM and NANO are also high on my list.
I am with you on this, statistics has proof of it. Over the years we have seen how BTC has dropped. The stat doesn't lie. It seems investors are gradually shifting ground by dumping BTC for alt coin...
The long term trend is undeniable I think.
Yes, i agree also.
I just recently came across to your articles (which i find really interesting) but it is the first time I decided to comment.
It is true that for many years BTC has the absolute dominance of the market. It may be at around 37-43% nowadays but it used to be 65+%.
My belief is that as the time goes by coins will stop being in the shadow of BTC and will act independently. What we see today is almost every coin “act” the way BTC does. But i think it is about to change as new strategies and new technologies are developed.
This of course does mean that BTC will stop being the leader. It is and it will always be. Some people call me crazy when i express my belief that BTC will hit the 500k mark on day.
Anyway...we just have to wait and see.
I followed for more of that.
Have a great day @cryptographic
I think it's just a question of when.
In my opinion the elephant in the room at the moment is the SEC/CFTC meeting to discuss whether Eth is a security or not. The FUD was that today they are going to meet and eventually reach a decision, so far nothing has happened but you can see that the markets are concerned about it if you look at ETH's volume and dump for the day.
I wrote a bit about it in my artcile Would be glad if you check this out :)
In general BTC seems like it's underperforming but I wouldn't say so. When thing were selling-off BTC held a lot better than most of the alts. We will see soon enough I guess ! Thanks for the article, gives food for thought.
Looking at charts, I don't get much at the moment from BTC chart. Maybe some bearish bias for now. I looked at few other charts and of all we here like to mention, EOS seems the strongest and my GUESS is, it will move first. May be within the day or two. And it makes sense since they are close to launch and block producers are buying their stakes, people are buying because of different kind of air drops... But back to the chart, on daily it shows very nice high pol flag, which is continuation pattern and it tends to continues with the direction of a trend:
Watch shorter term, 4hr chart for a break out above 18.5$ on double/triple volume. May happen in a day or two.
Next chart that I like is BTS, that is currently in retracement after nice move up. Volume action and just over all chart feels good so far.
The rest, STEEM, SBD, BTC to me currently feel: "meh".
Of course this all can change in a hurry and as usually, no guarantees ;-)
Bottom line, partially off topic respond since I have no opinion on BTC. Well slightly bearish.
"Meh" isn't all that bad either . . . if it is a correction, that is.
Yes correct, I was just posting my current view and sentiment based on current chart, long term I'm very very bullish on STEEM, actually very bullish on all I mentioned :-)
Ouch! Such a nice pattern that didn't play out. Overnight carnage took them all down. EOS chart was the best looking of all the top ones. But when it rains it pours...
I am seeing early signs of weakness; A couple of shooting star candles on high volumes on the 2hr chart (see screenshot above). Sir @cryptographic
Daily volumes (see below) are rising on HALF volumes compared to historical strength. I just don't see strength for mid term.
And also The real weakness of bitcoin is that almost any government could spam it out of existence by pricing ordinary citizens out of performing transactions and making the whole darn chain largely unusable. You just focus on one resilience aspect (many nodes) at the expense of others.
Yeah, there's not much to write home about when looking at the volume picture.
@cryptographic - Sir I stopped believing BitCoin... Steem, BitShares are good for long term holders than BitCoin... In ROI term I'm talking Sir... It's a high probability to see $10 Steem & $2 BitShares before BitCoin reach to $20,000...
+W+
I have to say that I completely agree. 😎
Hello @cryptographic,
There are only 21 million Bitcoin, and as time goes on, they become harder and harder to mine. Take a look at Bitcoin’s inflation rate and supply rate:
Bitcoin is a limited resource. Therefore, high demand for less supply will be the future outcome. Collecting few Bitcoin can give us good financial stability in upcoming years.
Extraordinary good discussion & valuable input to the Steemit community.
~@mywhale
Yeah, but the competition has much greater supply, which makes them cheaper, and they do a better job too.
weak hands playing their part before the big party arrives time to HODL it tight and accumulate cheap alts
Okay, I'll go with that.
Edit: but you're talking about STEEM and BitShares, right. 😉
Hi @cryptographic ! I believe BTC will be loosing percentage of market in the long term. EOS will start getting more market share and ETH will grow too, but at the time technologies start to move from ETH to EOS, that is when EOS will start gaining more share vs ETH loosing it.
It maybe we are still on a bear market and as several people are saying, Consensus 2018 will make the shift to a bull market again.
Thanks for sharing this BTC graph!
Regards, @gold84
Even if we are still in a bear market, I'd venture to say that the big losses have already been seen and that anyone buying at current levels has a lot less risk than they would have had before. In sum, I think crypto is in very healthy shape!
Your topic ::
I think, BTC is not losing ground long term..and think, it grows downward after one weak. But don't worry after it losing , It continuously increase after this month .But, hope that, We will see BTC extreme arise and at the end of the year BTC price exceed $18,000 ..
BTC is gradually losing its market dominance to altcoin, investors are begining to instil value in altcoin. On the other hand, you will discover that Altcoin si gradually rising towards attaining their goals.
Thanks for sharing ...
We must have some caution before making predictions, especially with the news emerged by BHC and the whole issue involved.
But we saw that it tantalizingly undermined the 10k resistance (which was achieved in the Asian markets)
What we must do is have a little patience and see how it fluctuates before doing anything.
I don't think BTC is losing ground for long term, it just a temporary thing. Except BTC, all Coins are doing great. We all know still BTC is the market leader. So while all the other Coins are rising soon the BTC will rise again because no team can win without its Captain. Its just a matter of time for BTC to gain its full value. I have full faith in BTC.
yes btc has no weakness haha
Duplicate comment, I'm sorry.
Hmm, I'm always a bit lost when you draw the lines over the markets! Maybe if I studied TA, I would understand what you're doing.
In general, I've seen that Bitcoin marks the changes for the other markets. Before the big dump, whenever it jumped, we always expected the rest of the markets to follow and moved our currencies accordingly.
However, lately, we've noticed that Bitcoin stays in a range trying to break giant barriers and never jumping too much, and nevertheless, even through the BTC falls, Steem has stayed green most of the time. It did drop from 8.9 to almost $1, but it then came back to $3.5 and has been growing despite BTC's slacking off.
Do you think that Steem will grow a lot even if BTC stays there? And if BTC dumps, will Steem follow into the dak dungeons?
In the first place, all crypto really does not possess real value on its own. It depends on people perception of its value. The more people buy it, the more valuable it becomes. When BTC was dirt cheap just less than 2 years ago, those who believe in it have already earned great profit. Those who do hold BTC, I believe as long as you hodl and don't panic to sell, there will be a time it will rise above the price you once bought. It takes patience as it may take few days, few months or even few years. We should invest with spare cash so you can just invest and leave it as though you did not even invest. Sell when there is profit! I think BTC can still maintain its position as the master coin for some time.
There is no doubt that Bitcoin is the first mover, and it also affects ups and downs of altcoins market or overall cryptocurrencies market. I think when people start to think differently or other crypto-based coins, like
steem or eth have trusted platform then it will not affect the price of altcoins which has values of their own.
This is a warning for people who are currently buying Bitcoin for the investment because if they now buy a big bit of Bitcoin then suddenly the prices are likely to drop down and they are likely to suffer financial losses.Before investing and trading in cryptocurrency, you first have to understand how the cost of cryptoconcines is quenched and the price is low because the cryptocurrency dependent on these two things is managed. I think those people who are skilled in this are the right people for cryptocurrencying.
past says, every drop of btc made it into new peak. it'll happen again & in 2020 btc will reach 200,000 usd like your previous references. @cryptographic
reteemed & upvoted@resteemia
Previously, the bitcoin price fell by nearly 10 percent after the sell off of Mt. Gox trustee funds on cryptocurrency exchanges. That time, the Bitcoin price dropped from $9,800 to $8,800 within a single day. Over the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin price only dropped by $400 after testing $10,000, which shows that Bitcoin has gained stability in the $9,500 region and is capable of bouncing back following large sell offs.Both exponential and simple moving averages show a healthy short-term trend for bitcoin, demonstrating a strong buy signal.
Great statistics
I think you are right
Currently at this point it is indeed getting on a downtrend so the market is indeed correction. Hope it gets to rise and be at a nice point though.
I hope this "direct" will constantly strive to go up. Good luck to you and Love.
Your writing has taken me self-sufficient. It is good to me, but you have given me some idea about West Bhetechiki Tokike, which actually goes to the very low village. Btc rate day by day, in a country where there is no doubt that how can we survive it, If I go, how do I work on Steamet, I'm afraid of these things If we have to be there, then we will go where we have to leave us, but we can pass it normally, we are very important and very thankful to you.