During times like these with another heavy market correction I like to look at things in a bigger picture. Anyone who has followed me for any length of time, I am anti Hodl and anti buy the dip in a bearish market like we have seen this year. To me, markets run in cycles and everyone should be aware of that. Nothing goes straight up or straight down. BTC ran up over 2300% in 2017. This set off loads of unrealistic expectations of next stop $50k or 100k or moon! Market gets flooded with inexperienced investors all chasing an asset that has already made its massive bull run.
We then set in the correction phase and we start to see the panic and fear set in along with loads of excuses on why market is dropping or when market will rebound. We've all seen it with it's China, it's Mt Gox whale, it's waiting for tax season, consensus, ETFs, etc.
What if all it is, is a market correction. It's just unrealistic to expect an asset that ran 2300% in a year to just keep climbing without a more drawn out correction. We saw several 30-50% corrections in 2017 within our bull run but nothing too extended until 2018 where we have pulled back for nearly 7 months now.
To me it is not a question of if the market turns bullish but when? I do believe longer term, we will eventually see another big bull run back up and likely see all time highs again and then will have another massive correction and we just repeat the cycle. What is more important to me as a trader is making sure I am putting my own capital to work in the best of markets. Crypto has struggled and while the volatility of 2018 has still been profitable for many traders, it does require quite a bit of work and time to make profits in this market compared to putting money to work elsewhere (such as stocks or real estate, etc) to turn profits.
I continue to watch my weekly chart and as long as we stay within the equilibrium, I will continue to stay in crypto market to trades to scalp quick profits on oversold bounces or mini bull runs but am nowhere near holding any positions again long term. I have exited all of those back in January when the 50 day moving average broke bearish. If the weekly chart does have a bear break on the equilibrium pattern, I will then re-evaluate trading within this market or just exiting completely at least temporarily to allow my capital to work elsewhere within more bullish markets. I don't know where the bottom is or when the market will change to bullish again so instead I watch the charts and determine if putting money in at any specific point is low enough risk to turn a good profit. When market does turn bullish again, then absolutely I have no issues on holding or even buying the dips on a bull rally as you are going with the trend at that point but currently the trend for 2018 has been down or sideways at best and that is just not an ideal time for me to lock up capital in long term investments.
I do believe crypto will need a significant catalyst to turn the market bullish again, the most logical of this to me would be an ETF but various other things could also cause the catalyst. Right now the market is fearful. People are scared to buy, traders are even hesitant to enter as the risk/reward is just not ideal, and hodlers have started to become frustrated with the market bleeding out their money.
In the end, each individual needs to determine what type of investor they are, what their time frame is, and what their risk tolerance is. Answer those questions and set up your short, intermediate, and long term plan for this market or any market.
Just My 2 Sats!