Portfolio
This month, I further sold another peace of my portfolio. Transactions in March:
The market
Since last post, the market got very overheated, and strong distribution from longterm holders continued.
We could see the highest profit taking since 2017 bull market.
This is clearly a late stage of the bull market. Longterm holder supply in profit is also dropping.
Right now, I see 2 main scenarios that could play out.
- Entering the bear market - in my opinion it's likely that we already seen the top of this bull market. That would be a huge surprise for all the retail players expecting continuation of the bull market after the halving.
- Another fast leg up, and then bear market - in this scenario noobs get what they want - confirmation that we are continuing to go up after the halving. But it would not last for long.
Given the retail time-target of the top (2025), there is not much room to continue the bullrun. However, I still think that the 2nd scenario is more likely given the overall distribution in this bull market. Basically, if it was to end right now, it would be the mildest bull market of all in terms of on-chain distribution.
I'm just wondering if I'm not being biased because I still hold crypto? Is this wishful thinking? Well, I already took significant profits, so adding a little bit more risk will do no harm :)
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