You're absolutely right in that my guess is as good as yours and the 1 August segwit adoption is a pivotal point - any trader who tells you he knows for definite what is going to happen in the future is talking complete BS (including me, unless of course they have "inside information", which does exist). I am the first to admit I'm WRONG plenty of times and thats why it's critical we ALWAYS USE A STOP LOSS, to manage our risk and PROTECT US when we are wrong.
I'm under no illusions that my opinion is exactly that - just an "opinion", which has a probability of being just as must wrong as right. The beauty of exchanges and markets is that we have buyers and sellers with diametrically opposite views.
Don't feel obliged to, but onty if you feel comfortable post a chart here so we can all learn from what you see. By the way, you're spot on using Log charts.
I encourage you all to challenge my perspective.
My website http://cryptotradingmastery.com/ (soon to be launched) has in its name MASTERY.
To master ones skill/trade we must always learn from others (think Karate Kid and Mr. Miyagi =) ).
Everyone has value and only a fool thinks h/she know better than others.
I am a STUDENT of the financial markets and ALWAYS WILL BE.
Trust me, when you think you know it all guess what happens ? BAM! The Market humbles you asyou get too cocky.
Thank you for your insight and comment,much appreciated, please share more..