Times are changing and while is good not to forget the past in order not to repeat it ("since 2012, when the decline in the day was 80 percent") I think that the conditions and the market size now represents a new game. While we can hope to bet on the wining horse, it's clear that we cannot predict the "mood" of the market. But, nevertheless we collect what we sow.
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I actually wrote an article with some answers and my humble opinion of what is happening in the near term. Check it out if you like...
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptkeeper17/bitcoin-value-forecast-a-brief-simple-short-term-analysis
Nice...My best way of destroying my enemies is to turn them to friends...Abraham Lincoln