Is the final outcome actually based on the market price? or some other value?
If it is the market price, then as long as the price of BTC is at or higher than 50% of what it is now -> you are good.
So since most people would say the chances of a 50% drop within 2 weeks is low - then this seems to be low risk. How is it high risk then??
I think some more detail is needed - because statistically they way I read this at the moment - this is a very good game to play.
i.e. statistically the price in 2 weeks will be between $5000 - $9000. Since the bottom of this range is $5000 which is greater than $3800 = profit. Then to hedge against this position, you go short on Bitmex at 10x to 50x.
-> what a low risk way to increase your btc holdings. I can't see a way to actually lose.
My house is going to go on the market tomorrow (no kidding, it actually is). So I'd happily delay the purchase of the next house and sleep in the car for 2 weeks to play this game.
Cheers
:)