The unemployment rate in the United States was near 25%. That was the worse employment period in U.S. history. Today, that number stands at roughly 4%.
We can debate the preciseness of the numbers but the overall picture holds true.
So how are we going to deal with 50% unemployment in the next 10-15 years?
Think this is not possible? Think again.
We are presently in a situation where the United States has a booming economy. The rest of the world is starting to see a slowing. Hence, it is only a matter of time before the Untied States is affected by the rest of the world. China is slowing, Western Europe is struggling.
Thus, I make use of two variables to reach my conclusion.
A) We will have a global recession within the next 24 months.
B) As evidenced by the reports coming out of Davos, corporations will use this opportunity to invest more in automation, positioning themselves for greater profits when the economy recovers.
We are now in a corporatocracy. Labor is the largest expense most companies have. The elites at Davos are well aware of this. They also see how automation can replace 10% of their work force. If 10% why not a lot more?
GM Brazil, in the 1980s, had fiber optic computerized robot automated lines and warehouses which led to the elimination of rooms full of engineers along with line workers. Automating insurance, finance, banking, and accounting is a lot easier.
For all the talk on here about the promise of blockchain, few mention what the eventual outcome will be. The increased use of blockchain will eliminate middle men. That means a lot of lost jobs. Once again, we can see the devastation to Wall Street from this technology. People who work on supply chains, in logistics, and any other verification entity are going away.
We are in the early stages today. Picture how this technology will look in another decade.
The central fact is we are experiencing a paradigm shift that was never witnessed. People call it Industrial Revolution 4.0. Whatever the term, we are going to see things happen that never took place before. The main reason is speed. This is going to affect a lot more people because of the speed that it hits.
I keep saying I could care less about people's politics, economics, and finance. Most of that is going out the window. Technology is driving the show and it brings with it a host of new rules. What was applicable 30 years ago is no longer the case. Trying to apply economic theory that was developed in the Second Industrial Revolution simply does not work. The relationship between labor and capital is opposite that era.
To increase capital today, reduce labor.
Government are impotent to stop this. The Yellow Vest movement is just getting started. We are going to see a lot of upset people around the world. Our political leadership is clueless as to what is coming. In the U.S., we have a bunch of gray hairs in office. These people send secure emails on a public WiFi and think Tweeting is technology. No wonder Zuckerberg ran circles around the Senate.
Tax revenues are going to drop like a brick. When people are unemployed, there are no wages to tax. Also, bankruptcies go through the roof. This means that interest rates, no matter what the central banks do, will keep dropping. The ones who would borrow will not need to because they are going to be flush with cash due to automation. Corporations are going to be running the show even more than they are today.
They are going to be the ones funding the governments.
The people who are in the middle of the system will be crushed. Those who believe what they are being told are going to get eaten alive. The ones with money in the stock market, longer term, will most likely do well as long as it is invested in companies using AI and automation. Remember, profits will grow significantly.
But where do the revenues come from? The same place they are now: debt. Governments will end up being feed through systems to people. They will issue more debt to pass money along to the populous. This money will be routed back to these mega-corporations through spending.
It is a nice little circle for them.
This is what the average person is facing. Going to depend upon Social Security? Good luck with that. Have a pension? Expect it to be cut. Got a nice job with a great salary hoping to get another 15 years to retirement? Consider it gone.
Fortunately, for those reading this, we are aware of the solution. Those who are getting involved in cryptocurrency and blockchain now are going to be in a better position. What we are doing on here each day will insulate us from what the rest of society is going to experience.
Why do I believe this will happen so quickly? After all, my forecast is more aggressive than most.
The answer is blockchain. I have yet to see an article discussing this which mentioned the devastating impact that blockchain will have on traditional jobs. Since I am one who believes in the promise of what this technology offers, I also am aware of the ramifications.
Think of the potential impact when a business owner(s) can log onto a site like steem-engine.com, have a smart contract written, and take the company public. No IPO. No lawyers. No brokerage fees. Simply create a token and put it out there. How much money does that pull out of the IPO system?
People might not care about decentralization but it is the only thing that will save their bacon. These system is established in such a way that only those in power are going to benefit. We are not going to see solutions from inside the system.
Luckily we see a new system being erected that we are all a part of. Hopefully, more keep joining to protect themselves.
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50% unemployment? I don't think so!
Most govern-cement jobs are just collecting paperwork from corporations.
And, there is an identical job in all those corporations making that paperwork.
The biggest circle-jerk ever.
Corporations are running the govern-cement, soon they will discard it.
So, all of those jobs that are just making paperwork are about to be downsized.
Factory jobs being replaced by robotics is nothing in comparison.
Further, the area that block-chain is going to destroy is the financial industry. The whole thing. Insurance, funding, money movement, check cashing... all gone.
Thus, i feel that 50% unemployment will just be for starters.
Big River Steel is a cool place to look and see how far automation can bring an industry.
Even with so much automation, it will be a while before that industry is 50% automated, but im sure it will be quicker than I realize.
What I like watching are what new jobs are created. If you would have told 10 year old me that people were getting paid to play video games for fun and professionally I would have laughed then spent the next 10 years playing a lot more video games.
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Imagine if one day there is a report on the news about how a community who interact with the steem blockchain have all been lifted to higher class citizens after their native token, steem, hits $25
lol wishful thinking of course
Ah yes! I've also talked about the flip side to this. Blockchain and decentralization has the opportunity to create 0% unemployment.
In essence, if governance and labor becomes opt-in, anyone can get a job whenever they want.
The BLS says 4% unemployment but other stats paint a very different picture:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Also, I saw a chart recently (in a Mike Maloney YouTube post?) showing that historically when unemployment numbers drop really low, a deep recession usually follows. A bit counterintuitive, but the correlation is strong.
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Yes low unemployment is a leading indicator of impending recession. It is one trait that held up in most cases.
A lot of people think the answer is to grant the government even more power to 'fix things' through regulation, but the real answer is to layer a new economy over the existing one. A new economy that is so vibrant and parasitic, it will suck the life blood out of the old one. Big government will not be able to compete, and thus it will shrink.
The US is doing well at the moment... but being the world leader in oil production, in a time where EVs are getting faster, cheaper, safer, more exciting and more automated is not a great idea. I think states like Louisiana (huge number of refineries subsidized by the state) are in for a whole lot of pain over the next two years.
Louisiana also has another big problem:
The state economy relies on slave labor provided by prisoners.
The system is highly racist and give harsh sentences. The more we roll back the War on Drugs and Mandatory Minimum Sentences the more this directly hurts their economy.
Our unbelievably fucked up dependency on slavery and war will be our undoing.
Good read...The recent SOTU makes clear that a large portion of the government is fanning the embers of the Bernie Sanders' movement of Democratic Socialism. The promise of 'being taken care of' will have a whole other meaning, when the elites set up to be taxed at 70%, start putting their wealth into more secure locations...i.e. the blockchain.
Who will be left to pay the taxes???...the 'working class' of course...But, if people can't see the examples of other Socialism fails then, yes America is heading in the wrong direction.
Lastly, I notice POTUS never talks about cryptocurrency in his SOTU speeches; nor, the cyclical, hamster-wheel run of student loan debt.
Peace.
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Maybe the government should force the unemployed to use Steem, so they can be "employed". 😂
Kinda reminds me of what they did in the UK and get people on to Zero Hour Contracts just so they can say they are employed to make the numbers look better. hehe
People are afraid of unemployment.
But why?
Imagine living without labor work.. Like the ancient greeks.
But with machine slaves instead of humans..
Unconditional basic income would boost creativity ;)
We need good through thought ideas.
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Dear @luegenbaron
That's the thing. It would never be unconditional. Let's say you're being charged of being a 'terrorist' or you promote 'hate speach' and that could be taken away from you.
Yours
Piotr
Well we will have to take one step more to also solve these kind of problems.
Im against a construct which has infinite Power. So Im against a state and against governments..
Im more the anarchistic kind of guy.
Domination and coercion are symptoms not causes
I like the voluntary way instead of the compulsion which is happening for many hundred years now..
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Love to see how responsive you are @luegenbaron
I'm sorry that it took me so long to read it and reply.
Yours
Piotr
:)
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This has already started as the 4% unemployment is manipulated given the way the labor force and participation ate calculated.
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This reminds me of how the trading floors were replaced with computerized trading in the the late 90's and into the 2000's.
I don't think it will be quite that simple. Many of these tokens might be considered securities, and I don't think the regulators will just sit back and allow an unfettered token economy to flourish just like that.
Hi @taskmaster4450
Another great choice of topic.
I believe that ways of collecting taxes would have to change. Economy cannot be based mostly on taxes coming from humans. That's the biggest challenge ahead.
Indeed. Future will surely be difficult to many.
Keep up with a great content buddy
Piotr
Not only taxes, governments themselves will have to change.
We are going to have to figure out different governance methods.
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