Thanks for this video and lots of different thoughts about your comments. I agree with some of your assessments but I think that there are some other facts and factors that are relevant but you do not cover. First of all China does have large oil reserves, they ar a huge importer of oil which is why they are interested in the Yuan / petrodollar. It is because as you say oil is traded in dollars which causes those who do not use the dollar to incur additional costs to convert their currencies to dollars int he middle of a transaction and puts the dollar right in the middle of every transaction. The BRICS countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are trying to break this cycle being led by Russia who as you know want to do their own thing and are being vilified int he press as a result. Will the dollar fall if transactions occur in other currencies? Possibly but it is really had to determine because money policies are elastic and there are lots of factors that apply. However there is a good chance that the dollar will fall if this occurs.
In terms of the US dollar and all other fiat currencies, i find that ther eis a major factor too many people overlook that is central to how and why they work. Many people use their disconnecting from gold as an argument that they have no value. This is not true. Fiat currencies are used every second of every day to buy real things all over the world. Gold is a mined asset that has a finite limit. It was only a matter of time before it could not keep pace with the amount of currency needed around the world. So right now moat countries only maintain bout 4% or less of their reserves in gold. How are they able to use money without the backing of a physical asset. Simple, they always pay their bills. The US had a more than 150 year track record of never missing a bill payment and this is what got them credit. Same with other western countries and this is the case today. If you want to see a currency fall, have the country miss a payment to the bankers and it plummets. Keep making payments as the US does in spite of their continually rising debt and the currency remains stable.
In terms of inflation, it is a factor of several things in addition to printing extra money (which is a factor), but not the only one and at times not the most important one.
This in my opinion will be the challenge with cryptos. They have no track record and expect people to believe that they will always be able to pay their bills. This is big leap. They always talk about fiat in the same vein when you point out that they are not backed by anything but confidence, but you should trust Visa over some guys with an 8 page white paper and no track record for being successful.
I only bring up these points because we need to exercise some common sense and restraint and be realistic about where we are and what the real potential is with crypto. The bottom line as I have been saying is that until these companies can get some use cases going with financial successes and revenue models that make sense, everyone is guessing based on emotion. Not a bad thing, but we need to call it what it is. This way we can make good decisions and not be surprised or disappointed and make nonsensical decisions.
In my humble opinion, all of these asset classes will have a role to play int he future. Fiat is not going anywhere neither is gold nor crypto. But how crypto in particular will develop is nealry impossible to tell becaue there are too many unanswered questions. Has any company got it right right now? Which ones do and which don't? Will any of them work at scale? Can any of these companies make any money? Is the right management in place? Do they have a viable business model? What is going to happen when they get competition from the traditional companies who will not just sit and watch while these guys try and disrupt their industries? These are major issues that we have no answers for right now.
What we do know is that the US has set up cryptos not as currencies but as investments which says a ton about how they are viewed and will be regulated. The SEC is tough as nails and if you look at what they do to stocks (which is where they are looking to place cryptos), you can bet that the current activities going on at the exchanges right now will be severely limited and modified. THE SEC has every tool of the US govt. at its disposal and they also have existing markets and investors to protect. They will look to do both with regulation. If you want see the new model for ICOs going forward, look at a company called Filecoin and how they are set up to be SEC complaint. It looks like a standard IPO. This might point to the future and if it does, the current class of investors wil be marginalized.
for me what I am hoping which seems like a dim hope is for the crypto industry o come together and self-regulate. This si tough because everyone is talking about decentralization (whatever that means) and no regulation, but that will not fly in this world today. There have to be rules that others who are affected can look at and judge. There is no other option.
Anyway, my thoughts like your are continually evolving on all of this but I pay attention and have history in the financial markets so I can judge and assess perhaps better than most. When people ask me what I think I simply say, we are 2 years away from stability and I believe that perhaps 15 coins will make it big and half of those have not even been launched yet. Knowing this you need to pay attention and be cautious.
Just some thoughts and sorry for the long comment. All the best to you.
Great perspective here davidallenjones. I'm encouraged every time I find someone on here with a solid viewpoint and information (might not be my viewpoint). This right here is what will make steemit and crypto work long term. We live in a society now more than ever that real and true information is more important than ever. Just followed you in hopes that you keep it coming, good luck my man.
Hey thanks and yes we have to be sober about re things are so we recognize the real stuff and move away from the fake. Right now things are a damn mess with manipulation yanking things everywhere. I read four or five people each day on Steemit trying to predict where the crypto market is going. They are all wrong. The truth is manipulators and speculators are controlling the markets. The next truth tat no one wan to confront is that even the idea of crypto marketplace is a terrible idea. Look at Steemit. It hardly matters what we do here on the platform because people are looking at cryptos in general and voting in droves. If there was no marketplace we could develop and build value on our own. If I was behind this platform I would immediately take it off the marketplace until things stabilized.
In truth, things don't make sense because those making so much cash on market ups and downs don't want them to. You will see things stabilize when cryptos start moving on their own, not as one big group and again when some of these use cases prove out (or not).
So again if we are realistic we can make good business and investment decisions. If not we end up being leaves in the wind. Sorry about all of the typos I was on the phone earlier.
Thanks and following you too. I occasionally write about the marketplace and I will continue to. But when I see posts I often comment to try and offer some insight that can be helpful. A lot of people are sincere and want things to work. I believe they can but we have to pay attention and be cautious (and stop listening to all of this damn hype). I am following you too. All the best and thanks.
Now this I believe that " perhaps 15 coins will make it big and half of those have not even been launched yet" It always makes me laugh when I see questions like "Bitcoin or Ether".... etc they do not seem to think while they are being narrow minded and tearing down each project another new player can just come in fixing all issues and claim the top spot.
Great comment. Thanks for taking the time to even write this whole thing not only for my benefit but everyone who visits this blog!
@broncnutzI have watched a few of your videos my friend. You are a good man and a really passionate man about helping people. I appreciate that about you. The thing I don't want to see is for good people to get deceived and discouraged. We definitely have something here but getting through so much noise is the challenge. Keep your faith and stay positive. I think it will take some time but if we can all do this we will win. All the best to you.